Giuliani leads in early Iowa polls

David Yepsen:

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Giuliani made his first campaign trip to Iowa on behalf of himself Tuesday. He told a crowd of several hundred at Valley High School in West Des Moines, "I am running for president of the United States, and I am running in Iowa, and we're going to win Iowa."

A new poll of likely Republican caucus-goers released Wednesday indicates that is a doable proposition. The survey taken March 30 to April 1 by Strategic Vision, an Atlanta public-relations firm that has done work for Republicans in the past, shows Giuliani leading the pack of GOP presidential candidates in the state, despite his relatively late start here.

The poll of 600 likely GOP caucus-goers has him leading with 25 percent of the vote and John McCain in second with 20 percent.

For months now, conventional wisdom has said Giuliani would fade as Republicans learn of his liberal positions or divorces. That hasn't happened, and it raises the possibility that many social conservatives are looking at other things or character traits as they choose a candidate to back in 2008.

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Diane Crookham-Johnson, a GOP leader from Oskaloosa who had been helping George Pataki before he faded, is now neutral in the presidential race, but said, "Giuliani has struck a chord with people in Iowa. There are issues beyond social issues that people are concerned about, and they see some of those in him. They see his approach to crime in New York and taxes. I hear people say he really is a Republican on those issues."

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"I want to assure you we will be back in Iowa," he said. "I'm going to run in Iowa the way I ran in New York City. I know you think New York City and Iowa are very different," but running for mayor of New York City and running in an Iowa caucus campaign are "very similar."

"You run every day," he said. "I walked the streets, did 93 town-hall meetings. I had people come up to me and tell me, 'Mayor, you're doing a great job. Or, Mayor, you stink...'

"I'm used to that. I like that. I love doing it, and I love people. We're going to win the caucus and surprise everybody."

He may win. But it should no longer be a surprise.

He can be an effective campaigner. Iowa was snubbed by McCain in 2008 and Romney has not really struck a chord here. Fred Thompson nor the other candidates are a factor yet either.

What Giuliani has done on the social issues is not be scary. While he does not back away from his previous positions he is not campaigning on changing the status quo either. He is focused on national security and winning the war and that should be the most important issue for voters.