The case for Tommy Thompson

George Will:

IN the last 24 elections, since 1912, winners of the presidency won a plurality of the states along the Mississippi. Today the Republican presidential candidate with perhaps the most impressive resume says:

Republicans should assume that in 2008 they will lose Ohio (20 electoral votes), where the state party's corruption and incompetence cost it the governorship, a U.S. Senate seat and a House seat in 2006. So the GOP candidate must carry Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota (27 electoral votes). In 2004, George W. Bush narrowly carried Iowa and narrowly lost Wisconsin and Minnesota, the only state that has voted Democratic in eight consecutive elections.

The man with the impressive resume is Tommy Thompson, who says he can carry those three Midwestern states. He served four terms as Wisconsin's governor, and four years (2001-2005) as secretary of health and human services, where he presided over a $580 billion budget, larger than the combined budgets of the eight largest states.

Regarding Iraq, he'd challenge that country's government to re-legitimize the U.S. presence by voting to ask U.S. forces to remain. If the government does not, the United States would leave. If it does, it should then encourage voluntary ethnic rearrangements by establishing federalism - strong governments in all 18 provinces - where Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds can cluster under governments of their kind. Then it should divide oil revenues, one-third to the national government, one-third to the provincial governments and one-third to Iraqi individuals, much as Alaska does with its oil trust fund.

As governor, Thompson was the progenitor of what became the greatest social-policy success of the 1990s, the national welfare reform of 1996 that has reduced the states' welfare rolls an average of 60 percent. He is even prouder of his efforts for school choice. He announced his presidential campaign at Messmer High School in Milwaukee, an inner-city Catholic institution that has flourished in the competition for students and in its freedom from educational bureaucracy: 90 percent of its graduates continue their education at college or vocational or technical schools. Do Iowans ask him about education? With characteristic bluntness, he says: "No, but I talk about it."

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Tommy Thompson is a smart guy who has shown a talent as an administrator. He is somewhat charisma challenged. His idea about Iraq would be pretty clever for a Democrat who is looking for a face saving way out rather than a way to win. His strength is his track record on social policy and education. He is way ahead of any Democrats in that area. At this point he is barely above * level in the polls so whether he could succeed in the three states Wills names is an academic question since right now he has not demonstrated the ability to get nominated in any state.