Al Qaeda target selection

Sammy Salama and David Wheeler:

The topic of al-Qa`ida's choice of targets has been the subject of much conjecture and speculation in open source literature. Some analysts argue that al-Qa`ida's modus operandi is similar to traditional terrorism in that it is a form of "political theater" meant to bring attention to the group and its objectives by attacking targets of high importance. Others have diverged from this view, arguing that unlike traditional terror organizations, the al-Qa`ida network is more interested in the mass killing of Western civilians as revenge for perceived historical injustices against Muslims. In some cases, the debate concerning al-Qa`ida's target selection is based on the assumption that al-Qa`ida targets symbolic facilities within the United States to demonstrate its military prowess and long-reach capability. Others argue that al-Qa`ida attacks soft targets due to the difficulty of attacking military and security facilities in the West. Yet an examination of primary al-Qa`ida operational manuals and published open source literature reveals a much different set of considerations in the group's target selection. Such an analysis of what al-Qa`ida tells the world—and, most importantly, what it instructs its recruits and would-be cell members—indicates that al-Qa`ida's target selection calculus is motivated by a far more ambitious, sophisticated and sinister motive: to destroy the economy of the United States and other Western powers by striking economic targets in the West and in the Muslim world. The network asserts that doing so curtails the American presence and influence in the Middle East and will end Western military and diplomatic support to regimes in the region. This ambition serves the final objective of severing American and Muslim alliances and bringing about the removal of all Western influence from the Middle East, as well as the overthrow of current Muslim regimes.

To best understand al-Qa`ida target selection, it is important to keep in mind al-Qa`ida's foremost strategic objective, which is to "bleed" [exhaust] the United States economically and militarily by forcing the U.S. to spend enormous amounts of money to protect its numerous sectors and facilities. Al-Qa`ida's primary literature and manuals affirm that the United States draws its formidable military power and political influence from its superior economy. Therefore, if the American economy is derailed, the United States will crumble and will not be able to sustain its military hegemony and presence overseas. One al-Qa`ida member stated that hindering Western economies is "the most dangerous and effective arena of Jihad, because we live in a materialistic world."[1] Accordingly, al-Qa`ida cells are encouraged to attack targets that have a high economic value and will cause the United States severe economic losses.

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There is much more.

To the extent that this is their strategy it has been a failure so far. The robust US economy has grown significantly after the initial attacks. The strategy does show up on a micro level with its attacks on market places in Iraq killing non combatants in hopes of keeping them from engaging in commerce in Iraq.

It is a long analysis and contains specifics on target selections. It is worth reading in full.