Russia eliminates threat to Putin rule
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and founder Dmitry Utkin reportedly died after Russian forces shot down an aircraft transporting senior Wagner commanders over Tver Oblast. The Russian Federal Aviation Agency (Rosaviatsiya) reported on August 23 that all the passengers – Yevgeny Prigozhin, Dmitry Utkin, Sergei Propustin, Yevgeny Makaryan, Alexander Totmin, Valery Chekalov, Nikolai Matyuseev – died in the crash along with all three crew members.[1] Russian opposition outlet Dossier reported that Chekalov, who is under US sanctions for transferring munitions to Russia and has acted on behalf of Prigozhin, oversaw Wagner transport logistics and “civilian” projects abroad.[2] A Russian insider source claimed that Chekalov also served as head of Wagner’s security services, though another source refuted this claim.[3] Dossier also reported that several other passengers joined Wagner between 2015 and 2017 and fought in Syria, although their current positions are unclear.[4] Russian sources amplified footage apparently showing a Russian missile striking an aircraft carrying Prigozhin, Utkin, and other Wagner commanders and the wreckage of the aircraft.[5] An insider source claimed that two S-300 missiles shot down the aircraft.[6] Flight tracking data for an Embraer Legacy 600 jet (registration number RA-02795) registered to the Wagner Group stopped after 6:11pm Moscow time while over Tver Oblast.[7] Russian sources claimed that a second Wagner Group-owned Embraer jet (registration number RA-02748) departed Moscow but turned around and landed at Ostafyevo airport in Moscow around the time of the strike.[8] Flight tracking data showed that this second aircraft arrived in St Petersburg at 6:27pm and flew back to Moscow 20 minutes later arriving at 8:02pm, however.[9]
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Kremlin have been destroying the Wagner private military company (PMC) and weakening Prigozhin’s authority since the rebellion – and the assassination of Wagner’s top leadership was likely the final step to eliminate Wagner as an independent organization. Wagner and Russian insider sources reported that the Russian MoD recently began forming new PMCs to replace Wagner in Africa and the Middle East and started recruiting Wagner personnel.[10] Wagner commanders indicated that two high-ranking Wagner officials joined the Russian MoD, and insider sources claimed that some Wagner personnel began to leave Belarus after Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko refused to finance Wagner when he discovered that Russia would not pay Wagner’s costs.[11] Prigozhin’s online persona has been largely silenced since the rebellion – possibly as part of the deal between Lukashenko, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Prigozhin – which may have negatively impacted Wagner’s ability to recruit new personnel amidst the Kremlin’s defamation campaign against Prigozhin. The Russian MoD and the Kremlin had effectively created conditions in which Prigozhin could no longer adequately support the Wagner contingent unless he was able to secure new funding and missions for Wagner personnel in the immediate term. Such conditions could have eventually led Wagner to slowly lose fighters and cause Prigozhin to lose his relevancy and influence.
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It is hard to imagine that Putin would allow a threat to his rule to survive even if the leader of the threat backed down. The facade of Russian democracy has long been dead and that may be one reason why the rebellion happened. It is likely that the Wagner group will be destroyed along with anyone else whom Putin deems an internal threat.
See, also:
These are the prominent critics and enemies Putin is suspected of having killed
Besides Prigozhin Putin is believed to be responsible for the deaths of Pavel Antov a Russian tycoon who "fell from a hotel room" after criticizing the war in Ukraine, Ravil Maganov another critic of the Ukraine war, Dan Rapoport who opposed Ukraine war, Mikhail Lesin behind Russia Today media found dead of "blunt force trauma to the head," Putin critic Boris Nemtsov shot four times in the back, Boris Berezovsky found dead inside a locked bathroom with a ligature around his neck, Natalia Estemirova a media critic killed with a gunshot to the head, Stanislav Markelov and Anastasia Baburova a human rights lawyer and his companion shot while on a walk, Alexander Litvinenko poisoned by FSB, Anna Politkovskaya a critic killed by five contract killers, Paul Klebnikov a journalist killed by contract killers, and Sergei Yushenkov a Russian politician trying to prove Russian state was behind the bombing of an apartment block shot in the chest.
And:
Video shows huge explosion from Ukrainian drone dropping a grenade on a hidden Russian ammo cache
And:
And:
Russians trying, and failing, to jam Starlink terminals in Ukraine, says U.S. Space Force chief
Russian invading forces are trying to jam signals in Ukraine from the Starlink satellite constellation launched by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, the commander of the U.S. Space Force, Gen. Chance Saltzman said in an interview with the Washington Post on Aug. 22.
However, he said the Russians so far failed to disrupt the satellite-based Internet provision system, which is vital for Ukraine’s military communications.
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And:
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More than 9,000 civilians had been recorded as killed and more than 16,000 injured by the end of July, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), which said it believed the actual figures were considerably higher.
The war has left nearly 500,000 troops either dead or injured, according to the New York Times.
The paper cited officials from the United States, which supports Ukraine, as saying as many as 120,000 Russian troops have been killed and 170,000 to 180,000 injured, with Ukraine's military toll at 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.
Russian officials say U.S. estimates of Russian losses are far too high - and propaganda. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Sept. 21 that 5,937 Russian soldiers had been killed since the start of the war. No further updates have been given and losses are a state secret.
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And:
Ukraine Hatches Plan to Reopen Black Sea Grain Route, Defying Russian Blockade
And:
Why Russia is struggling to defend itself against drone attacks – expert view
The article gives several examples but I think it may be as simple as the drones are not picked up by Russian radar because of their size.
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