Underestimating the illegals in US
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As the study’s authors anticipated arriving at a number well below that eternally unchanging 11.3 million, confirmation bias alone would have helped produce a lowball estimate. Instead, even with all the inputs rigged at improbably low levels, the model still generated a population of illegal immigrants in the US of 16.7 million — 50 percent higher.
The modelers were astonished. As an on-again, off-again New Yorker, I’m not.
Yet the full range of their model’s outputs is more astonishing still. Accepting, unlike most journalists, that their data contained a large degree of uncertainty, the authors ran their model with a variety of credible inputs literally a million times. The results within a 95 percent probability lay between 16 million and 29 million, with 22.1 million as the mean — or twice as many illegal immigrants as the Census Bureau figures imply.
Mind, that Yale/MIT model produced half a million results in excess of 22.1 million, with a multitude spitting out estimates in the vicinity of 35 million or more. That would be more than 10 percent of the total American population, which experientially sounds about right.
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It matters how many illegal immigrants are truly living in the US, because President Biden has ambitions to offer them all a de facto amnesty and a path to citizenship. Should the president get his way and, say, 35 million people rather than the expected 11 million emerge from the shadows to apply for legal status, the political backlash could be considerable — including from legal immigrants and naturalized citizens, who went to a great deal of bother to follow the rules.
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Biden and the Democrats are desperate to import voters because not enough citizens support them. They have in recent years resorted to lies to get votes such as the Russian collusion hoax which was used to flip Congress in the Trump midterms. Biden routinely lies to cover up his incompetence. Importing voters and increasing dependency appears to be the Democrats model for holding onto power.
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