September important month in GOP race

Des Moines Register:

September will be a telling month in the presidential race, with a trifecta of Republican debates and other developments that could separate the contenders from the pretenders.

Another campaign fundraising deadline looms at the end of this month. And Iowans will likely know by then whether Sarah Palin is in or out.

On this Labor Day, the 2012 race for the Republican nomination has an undeniable front-runner: Rick Perry. In just three weeks, the Texas governor has leeched poll headlines, money and supporters from rival Republicans — and overshadowed the Iowa straw poll’s best finishers.

Victor Michele Bachmann saw little, if any, bounce from her straw poll win last month, according to Republicans in Iowa and elsewhere.

“Perry stepped all over her,” said Christopher Rants, a longtime GOP operative from Sioux City. “I’ve never seen anything quite like it.”

This Labor Day also follows Friday’s historically bad jobs report — August marked the first time since 1945 that the government reported a net job change of zero — and comes amid a growing sense in both parties that Democratic President Barack Obama is vulnerable....

Labor Day also signals the traditional starting gun for the fall push to the Iowa caucuses, now scheduled for Feb. 6, 2012. But don’t expect the pace in Iowa to pick up until October or later, campaign aides and GOP insiders said.

With the grind of fundraising before the end of the third quarter — largely carried out in money markets outside Iowa — as well as debate prep, candidates will be occupied elsewhere for the most part.

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I suspect the Bachmann moment has passed, although she may finish a strong second in Iowa. That will probably be her high water mark. Perry needs to do well in the three debates this month. If he does he maybe unbeatable by the time the votes are counted.