Perry close to winning without runoff?

Burka Blog:

The answer is yes. Do the math from the Rasmussen poll.

Perry 44%
Hutchison 29%
Medina 16%

To keep Perry from winning without a runoff, the Hutchison-Medina duo must reach 50.1%. They need another 5.1% of the vote. But they can’t get it from each other. It is going to have to come from Perry.

Hutchison has been losing ground. There is no evidence that she can turn around that trend.

Medina is more likely to lose ground than pick up ground as the result of her appearance on the Glen Beck radio show.

If Medina craters and Perry and Hutchison makes the runoff, what will the Medina voters do? I can’t imagine that they will vote for Perry. Medina has shown him no mercy. Hutchison? If they are totally anti-Perry, KBH might pick up some votes. But I really think the Medina voters may stay home.

...

I don't think the Tea Party voters that support Medina are totally anti Perry. He has in fact been pretty Tea Party friendly this year. He has also been very available to the new media which lets him bypass some of the negative spin from more traditional media.

I am surprised Sen. Hutchison has not polled better, but it appears that Perry has tapped into the anti Washington mood in the state and that has hurt her. Looking at the Rasmussen numbers Burka cites, I think it is quite possible for Perry to get to 50 percent plus one.

BTW, Paul Burka is an acquaintance of mine from our days working on the Daily Texan. He was the Sports Editor the semester before I took the job. He is a much more prolific writer and has had great success at Texas Monthly.

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