Ukraine counter offensive continues to make marginal gains

 ISW:

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least three sectors of the front on June 16 and reportedly made gains. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that the Ukrainian forces conducted successful counteroffensive operations southwest of Bakhmut near Stupochky (about 12km southwest of Bakhmut); in western Donetsk Oblast near Vuhledar; in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area along the Levadne-Staromaiorske line; and in western Zaporizhia Oblast along the Novodanlylivka-Robotyne line.[1] Geolocated footage posted on June 15 indicates that Ukrainian forces have made marginal gains on the northwestern outskirts of Bakhmut west of Yahidne, and Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian troops continued counterattacks northwest, west, and southwest of Bakhmut.[2] Russian milbloggers additionally claimed that Ukrainian forces continued attacking Russian positions south of Velyka Novosilka in western Donetsk Oblast, made gains in central Zaporizhia Oblast just south of Hulyaipole, and mounted offensive operations southwest of Orikhiv.[3]

Russian forces targeted Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih with cruise missiles and kamikaze drones on June 15-16. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted five missile strikes with Kh-59, Kh-101, and Kh-555 cruise missiles on June 15 and that Ukrainian forces also shot down two Shahed drones.[4] Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Head Serhiy Lysak reported that Russian missiles had targeted two industrial facilities in Kryvyi Rih on June 15.[5] Ukrainian officials also reported that Ukrainian air defenses intercepted six Russian Kinzhal and six Kaliber missiles that targeted Kyiv Oblast during the day on June 16, coinciding with the visit of several African heads of state in Kyiv.[6]
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Both sides of this war continue to make plodding efforts at an offensive with minimal results.  Ukraine has been a little more effective than the Russians whose offensive efforts quickly sputtered.  The Russian missile attacks continue to be largely ineffective beyond making Ukraine expend its missile defensive systems.  It does appear that the size of the Russian missile attacks is shrinking.

See, also:

Ukraine’s counteroffensive so far: steady gains, heavy losses

Ukraine is making steady progress in the counteroffensive it launched this month and has reclaimed several towns in the southeast, but its troops are taking heavy losses as they try to plow through entrenched Russian lines.

Even with the losses, the incremental progress is defying expectations, given that Russia has had months to fortify its defenses across the 600-mile front.

The success so far, even in the early stages of what is likely a long campaign, is a good sign for Ukraine. Kyiv is facing pressure to retake swaths of territory in order to keep up support from western allies and chasten Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told NBC News this week the ongoing operation is “difficult” but “generally positive,” while also underscoring the immense stakes of the campaign.

“For Russia, to lose this campaign to Ukraine, I would say actually means losing the war,” Zelensky said.
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And:

 Ukraine deploys 3 of 12 brigades in counteroffensive, main battle still ahead − Reuters

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According to analysts, Ukraine has created 12 armoured brigades to conduct the counteroffensive operation, nine of which were trained and equipped by the West. A brigade usually has at least 3,500-4,000 troops. Kyiv also said that the Ministry of Internal Affairs had trained eight assault brigades, which is 40,000 soldiers in total.

Analysts say that Ukraine's main forces are concentrated near the city of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk Oblast, which is about 80 km to the East.

"Those thrusts may indicate Ukraine's generals have their eye on Tokmak, an occupied town in Zaporizhzhia Oblast some 25 km from the front line. A further 50 km away lies the city of Melitopol. Both settlements are heavily fortified", writes Reuters.

The news agency recalls that near the settlement of Velyka Novosilka, the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated four villages.

According to Anna Maliar, Deputy Defence Minister, the troops advanced 6.5 km and won 90 square kilometres of territory along the 100-kilometre section of the southern front line. On Wednesday, it reported further advances by 300-350 metres in various sections over the past 24 hours.
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And:

 The incompetence of Putin’s generals is a war crime in itself

We learned this week that more than 100 soldiers from Russia’s 20th Combined Arms Army may have been killed in a HIMARS strike after waiting for an “inspirational” eve of battle speech from the notoriously inept Major General Zurab Akhmedov.

It speaks to the incredible incompetence and pure arrogance of Vladimir Putin’s commanders; and not for the first time. The same man was accused of ineptitude after 300 Russian Marines were killed last year in an ill-conceived operation, where afterwards survivors wrote to the Russian MoD claiming the general used them as “cannon fodder”.

It is also yet another example of the complete disregard for the fighting soldiers by the Russian high command. As a former soldier, my view is that an army which has hit squads shooting deserters is without the vital morale component of fighting power – something Napoleon described as “ten as to one the physical component”.

It has also been reported in recent days that the Kremlin has identified four million men for conscription. These are, in short, men who would not be “missed” – the majority from the East and comparatively disadvantaged. They are certainly not the children of the elite in Moscow, who now call for air defence from the frontline to be moved back to protect them in the Russian “Beverly Hills” recently struck by drones.

The fact that in Russia nobody has announced or acknowledged this huge loss of life gives credence to the awful truth: nobody in a position of authority cares for the men on the frontline. An army whose most effective force are criminals has surely lost a vital component for success.
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And:

 The infantrymen on the hunt for Russian ‘foxes’ in a Ukrainian forest

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“The Russians are down there in the forest,” says Commander Oleg of Ukraine’s 36th Separate Infantry Battalion, as footage from a drone operator call-signed “Hornet” shows mortar duels unfolding on a screen in a bunker. “But we’re in good positions up here in the hills, and they’re down below. It’s like hunting a fox in a hole.”
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For Russia, the goal is to quell panic about the war coming to its doorstep. For Ukraine, the objective is to simply to hold ground and tie up as many Russian troops up as possible
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