Putin's Prigozhin problem impacting his war in Ukraine

 ISW:

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It remains unclear whether the Russian MoD will dissolve Wagner detachments and reassign Wagner personnel to pre-existing regular units. Such a drastic reorganization would be tantamount to the dissolution of the Wagner Group in Ukraine as a distinct organizational entity and would eliminate the unique combat power that the Wagner Group developed for itself in Ukraine. A Russian MoD decision to maintain separate Wagner units within the MoD structure would pose stability risks when subordinating previously independent and overindulged Wagner forces under the MoD highly bureaucratic military command. Separate Wagner forces would likely continue to pose an internal threat to Russia due to their dissatisfaction with the Russian military command – the reason why Wagner forces followed Prigozhin into the armed rebellion in the first place.

The Kremlin campaign to destroy Prigozhin’s reputation and possibly dissolve the Wagner Group’s Ukraine force decreases the probability of Putin announcing a new round of reserve mobilization in the near term. The Russian MoD will be preoccupied with subordinating Wagner forces if many of them elect to sign contracts with the MoD. Putin, who is a cautious decisionmaker and has clearly signaled his concern for his regime, is also unlikely to aggravate Russian society with a highly unpopular mobilization announcement on the heels of the armed rebellion. The Kremlin’s response to the aftermath of Prigozhin’s armed rebellion points to more advantageous conditions for Ukraine compared with the pre-June 24 situation.

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least four sectors of the front and reportedly made gains on June 27. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that Ukrainian forces advanced in all active sectors of the front from Donetsk to Zaporizhia oblasts.[21] Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), claimed that Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks near and south of Kreminna.[22] Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut.[23] Ukrainian General Staff Spokesperson Andriy Kovalev stated that Ukrainian forces conducted successful offensive operations south of Velyka Novosilka near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia oblasts administrative border and south of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[24] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks south and southeast of Velyka Novosilka, and one prominent milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces made further gains south of Rivnopil (10km southwest of Velyka Novosilka) after capturing the settlement on June 26.[25] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counterattacks south of Orikhiv to regain lost positions.[26]
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Russia's internal security issues were exposed by the Prigozhin rebellion and shipping him and some of his troops to Belarus is unlikely to completely solve Russia's security problems.  The war in Ukraine has exposed Russia's weakness beyond the imagination of the Russians and Western analysts.  Losing additional combat power on top of the huge losses of men and equipment in Ukraine will make Putin's objectives even more difficult to obtain.

See, also:

Ukraine recaptures territory held by Russia since 2014

Ukraine has for the first time liberated territory which has been under Russian control since 2014, British intelligence officials said.

The small patch of land is in an area near Krasnohorivka, some 10 miles south west of the city of Donetsk.

The capture marks the first time since Russia’s invasion in February last year that Ukraine’s forces have been able to retake land seized in the initial Donbas invasion eight years prior.

Ukrainian troops were said to have liberated the lands last week, but news of the victory has been kept secret until now for tactical reasons.
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And:

 Ukraine eliminates nearly 600 Russians, dozens of pieces of equipment over past 24 hours

And:

 Ukraine can now end Putin’s crumbling regime

 Perhaps the one thing that can be said for certain about the abortive Wagner “coup” is that Russia cannot protect its borders, let alone its major cities. There is also one obvious conclusion for the West to draw: we must give Ukraine the tools and latitude to exploit this weakness and bring Vladimir Putin’s regime tumbling down.

Throughout this war, Putin has relied on the assumption that Ukraine will limit combat operations to its own territory. In February 2022, the presumption was that Russian forces would sweep through the country, bringing victory in a matter of days. Now Putin thinks Kyiv’s forces will stay within its borders on the orders of its allies, believing Nato is too scared to allow Ukraine to strike Russia itself.

But why shouldn’t it? Moscow has already been cut off economically by the West, and its armed forces can barely fight on one front, at a losing pace, against Ukraine. He’s not about to open a second front against a revitalised Western alliance.

And the room is certainly there for Ukraine’s forces to strike openly against Russia proper. The events of last weekend were extraordinary; a few thousand mercenary thugs marched on Moscow, moving through the country with ease and, in doing so, almost brought the Russian war machine to a standstill. Now think about what a professional force supplied with the latest Western gear could achieve in the same territory.

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And:

 ‘Every day, the Russians are slowly retreating – and the real counter-offensive is yet to come’

After months of fighting around Bakhmut, Yaroslav – an artilleryman in Ukraine’s 80th Separate Airborne Brigade – has studied Wagner’s mercenaries from both afar and close up.

Sometimes, he has lobbed artillery at them from 10 miles away. At others, he has stood over their corpses after machine-gun battles in the trenches.

As private guns for hire, he finds their cause beyond contempt – although occasionally, when viewing their dead bodies, he has felt a flicker of pity as a fellow soldier.

“Some are professional soldiers, but others are just used as cannon fodder,” he said on Monday, showing a grisly phone video of a battle’s aftermath.

“One night, a load of them came at us and we shot them with big-calibre machine guns – when we saw the bodies the next day, we noticed how poorly equipped they were, with a small amount of ammunition each.”
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And:

 UK says the Storm Shadow missiles it gave Ukraine have been wreaking havoc on Russian targets and are accurate 'almost without fault'

Storm Shadow missiles provided to Ukraine by the UK are striking their targets with nearly pinpoint accuracy, sending Russian operations into disarray, the UK said Monday.

UK Defense Minister Ben Wallace said in a statement to the House of Commons that "the Storm Shadow missile has had a significant impact on the battlefield."

"Its accuracy and ability to deliver successfully the payload, as sent and designed by the Ukrainians, has been almost without fault," he added.

According to its manufacturer, MBDA, the air-launched missile has a range exceeding 155 miles and is designed to fly low after launch to evade detection.

An onboard infrared target-seeking system allows it to recognize planned targets for a precision strike, MBDA says.

The missile's range means it can strike dramatically beyond the reach of the much-celebrated HIMARS launchers sent by the US to Ukraine, which were modified to keep their range within about 50 miles, The Wall Street Journal reported.
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Both the HIMARS and the Storm Shadow missiles have had an impact on Russian logistics making it more difficult to supply frontline troops.