Russia revolt leads to changes in military's command structure

ISW:

...

Russian sources speculated that Wagner’s rebellion is already having widespread impacts on the Russian command structure. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Wagner’s rebellion has prompted “large-scale purges” among the command cadre of the Russian armed forces and that the Russian MoD is currently undergoing a “crash test” for loyalty.[7] The milblogger claimed that the Russian Federal Protective Service (FSO) is conducting a review of the Russian military leadership as well as the individual unit commanders.[8] The milblogger claimed that Russian officials are using the MoD’s “indecisiveness” in suppressing the rebellion and “support for paramilitary companies (PMCs)” as pretexts to remove “objectionable” personnel from their positions. The milblogger notably claimed that Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) commander and rumored deputy theater commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky assumed responsibilities as overall theater commander in Ukraine from Chief of the General Staff and current overall theater commander Army General Valery Gerasimov on an unspecified date, but likely after the rebellion. The milblogger emphasized that Gerasimov will retain his post as Chief of the General Staff but will no longer have responsibilities for Russian operations in Ukraine. Another Russian source claimed that an “atmosphere of suspicion has enveloped the General Staff” and that affiliates of Gerasimov are accused of indecision and failure while the affiliates of deputy commander of the joint grouping of forces in Ukraine Army General Sergei Surovikin are accused of complicity in the rebellion.[9] The sources publishing these speculations have largely been accurate in previous reporting on Russian command changes, although the ongoing disruption to human networks and the severe potential consequences related to Prigozhin’s armed rebellion may affect these sources’ accuracy. ISW cannot confirm any of these speculations about the command changes at this time, but it is evident that the armed rebellion is continuing to have substantial ramifications in the information space.

Russian authorities reportedly arrested Army General Sergei Surovikin on June 28, possibly indicating that the Kremlin intends to purge the MoD of figures viewed as disloyal. Russian opposition source The Moscow Times reported on June 28 that two sources close to the MoD confirmed that the Russian authorities had arrested Surovikin because he chose to side with Prigozhin during the rebellion.[10] The New York Times reported on June 28 that US officials briefed on US intelligence stated that Surovikin had advance knowledge of the rebellion, but that US intelligence is still trying to ascertain if Surovikin directly supported Prigozhin’s effort.[11] It is unclear what transpired that would have forced Surovikin to call on Prigozhin to end the rebellion only several hours after its start, although it is possible that he did so under duress instead of out of support for the Russian military leadership. If Russian authorities did arrest Surovikin then the Kremlin will likely use Surovikin and his affiliates as scapegoats to publicly explain why the Russian military and Russian internal security apparatuses responded poorly to the rebellion and to justify a potential overhaul of the Russian military leadership. ISW has previously reported on Surovikin‘s notable Wagner affiliations and alleged support for Wagner, and Surovikin is a prime candidate for a scapegoat regardless of the actual level of support he gave to the rebellion.[12]

The Kremlin will likely attempt to balance a desire to mitigate the widespread disdain for MoD establishment figures that fueled Wagner’s rebellion while also trying to disempower those who may have sympathized with the rebellion....
...

I suspect the failures of the Ukraine operation are also a reason for the shakeup of the command.  The war in Ukraine has exposed the incompetence of Russian forces particularly on the offensive, as well as the failure of its mechanized equipment.  The Russian defensive operation against the Ukraine offensive looks more competent.

See, also:

Putin’s generals are either incompetent or disloyal. Both will terrify him

Putin just about survived Prigozhin’s “march that wasn’t”; his regime is just about intact. That’s the end of his good news. His reputation and legitimacy have been irreversibly damaged, and he will no longer know who he can trust. While the increasingly reclusive autocrat retreats further into the Kremlin’s dark corridors to lick his wounds, purges of officials suspected of disloyalty could be days away.

After all, it is almost inconceivable that Prigozhin acted in isolation. His objective appears to have been replacing the Russian military leadership, and he would have needed tacit support from elements within the military in order to put new officers in place. It is overwhelmingly likely that he found this.

Consider the role that the Russian military had – and noticeably, didn’t have – during Wagner’s march to Moscow. While Putin has repeatedly acknowledged the steadfastness of the military in suppressing the rebellion, he has also made repeated veiled comments aimed at bringing the perpetrators – plural – to justice. These were not aimed at Prigozhin alone. The mercenary chief, now under close observation by Belarus dictator Alexander Lukashenko’s security forces in Minsk, clearly had some form of support in his aims to replace the Russian military hierarchy.

At the top of the list of possible accomplices is General Sergei “Armageddon” Surovikin, the former commander of Russian forces in Ukraine. Despite incurring Putin’s displeasure after withdrawing Russian troops from Kherson during last autumn’s Ukrainian counter-offensive, Surovikin is seen as highly effective still by the Russian military, serving now as deputy to General Gerasimov, the chief of the armed forces.
...

And:

 'Final act of Putin's reign': Details of chaotic Russian coup emerging. Live updates

Russian President Vladimir Putin is losing the war in Ukraine and has become "a bit of a pariah around the world," President Joe Biden said Wednesday.

Biden said it is "hard to tell" how much Putin has been weakened by Yevgeny Prigozhin's ambitious but ill-fated coup attempt. Some experts, however, say last week's chaotic insurgency stands as the greatest challenge yet to almost a quarter-century of Putin's authoritarian rule.

Mary Kate Schneider, director of global studies at Loyola University Maryland, told USA TODAY that even in failure, Prigozhin's coup attempt constitutes the single greatest challenge to Putin's authority in his 23-year reign. Prigozhin revealed "fissures in Putin's armor" that can be exploited by other challengers, she said. And Prigozhin's warm reception during his brief march could encourage those dissenters.

"It doesn't matter that Prigozhin and his soldiers did not reach Moscow, and in the long run it doesn't even matter why he stopped short of Moscow," Schneider said. "What matters is that Putin blinked."
...

And:

 Ukraine Situation Report: Naval Strike Missiles May Be Headed To Ukraine

Ukraine could be in line to receive the Kongsberg Naval Strike Missile, or NSM, from Polish stocks, with reports in the Polish media suggesting that talks between the two countries about a possible transfer of these coastal defense systems are underway.
...

And:

Russia is trying to stop Ukrainian advance at all costs – General Staff report 

And Putin is not the only one losing it...

 Watch: ‘Putin is losing the war in Iraq’, says Biden in latest gaffe

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Should Republicans go ahead and add Supreme Court Justices to head off Democrats

29 % of companies say they are unlikely to keep insurance after Obamacare

Bin Laden's concern about Zarqawi's remains