Ukraine's current offensive objectives against Russia
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The observation that current Ukrainian operations may have objectives that are not simply territorial is an important one. Ukrainian forces may be conducting several offensive operations across the entire theater in order to gradually attrit Russian forces and set conditions for a future main effort. Losses are inevitable on both sides, but careful operational planning on the Ukrainian side likely seeks to mitigate and balance this reality with the equally important observation that the degradation of Russian manpower is a valuable objective. Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin voiced his concern that Russian forces are suffering major manpower and equipment losses as a result of ongoing Ukrainian attacks, especially in southern Ukraine.[16] The success of Ukrainian counteroffensives should not be judged solely on day-to-day changes in control of terrain, as the wider operational intentions of Ukrainian attacks along the entire frontline may be premised on gradually degrading, exhausting, and expending Russian capabilities in preparation for additional offensive pushes.
Ukrainian defense industry conglomerate “Ukroboronprom” announced on June 20 that Ukraine built and successfully tested a 1,000km-range drone, indicating Ukraine’s intent and ability to target Russian military infrastructure in Russian-occupied territories and Russia with Ukrainian-made drones.[17] Ukroboronprom Spokesperson Nataliya Sad stated that Ukrainian forces successfully used the new Ukrainian-made drone but did not provide information on whether this drone was already used for strikes. Ukroboronprom previously announced its development of the 1,000km range drone in October 2022. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov told The Economist that Ukraine is at war and that drones over the Kremlin show that Russian defenses are “Potemkin villages” - an expression referring to the purported construction of fake settlements by a historical Russian minister to hide the true state of the Empire from the Tsar.[18] While Budanov did not confirm that the Ukrainian forces previously launched drones over the Kremlin on May 3, US intelligence officials previously assessed that the Ukrainian special military or intelligence units are behind a series of covert actions against Russian targets including the May 3 strike.[19] ISW had previously incorrectly assessed the May 3 attack on the Kremlin may have been a Russian false flag.[20] Ukraine’s focus on development of long-range drones alongside US intelligence indicates that Ukraine will likely continue to pursue Russian rear targets with Ukrainian-made drones. International law allows Ukrainian forces to strike legitimate targets even in Russian territory, especially targets from which Russian forces are launching attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.[21]
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The current Russian casualties are in addition to the major casualties it incurred in its initial offensive. Russia is much weaker militarily now than it was before the war. Its loss of mechanized equipment, armor, and troops has been significant, and it is having trouble replacing its casualties. I think the war is taking a toll on the manpower of both Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine's current advantage is that it has access to resupply its equipment losses, and Russia's ability in that area is limited,
The development of long-range drones by Ukraine is necessary. Russia still has a large air force and Ukraine needs to be able to have deep attacks into Russian territory to put Russian air operations on the defensive.
See, also:
Ukraine's counteroffensive against Russia slowly makes progress
It's hardly a blitzkrieg, and the bulk of the forces have yet to be committed, but Ukraine is recapturing settlement after settlement in the south
Ukraine might be a victim of its own success.
Last year, Kyiv launched a surprise operation to recapture territory in Kharkiv Oblast from Russian forces, liberating territory roughly the size of Denmark in the space of five days. That campaign, a closely guarded secret, was unforeseen by just about everyone — especially the Russians. But it set high expectations for Ukraine’s long anticipated spring counteroffensive.
That spring has finally arrived, and Ukraine has gone on the march in the southeastern regions of Zaporizhzia and Donetsk. But so far, Ukraine has been tight-lipped about its slow but measurable gains.
“Words are very unnecessary, they can only do harm,” Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s minister of defense tweeted on June 4, quoting Depeche Mode.
That same day, Ukraine liberated the village of Novodarivka, but waited eight days before publicly acknowledging the victory. As of Wednesday, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has liberated at least eight settlements, according to Deputy Defense Minister Hannah Malyar.
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Ukrainian military destroys Russian infantry group in Kreminna – video
Footage has emerged of drones organized by the Black Raven unit discovering and eliminating a Russian infantry group in the Kreminna area of Luhansk region on June 20.
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Ukrainian forces carry out successful counteroffensive operations on three frontline areas
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Russian economy expected to contract again in 2023: Scope Ratings
Russia's economy will contract again in 2023 though not as severely as last year, due to favourable energy prices and higher state spending, according to Scope Ratings forecasts seen by Reuters on Tuesday.
Russian GDP is expected to decline by 0.8% this year, less than the 4.0% forecast previously by Scope Ratings. The economy contracted 2.1% last year, Russia's federal statistics service said in February.
The Scope figure is more pessimistic than the International Monetary Fund's latest forecast for 0.7% growth and Russian government projections for growth of 1.2%. President Vladimir Putin said last week Russia's economy could grow by up to 2% this year.
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