The Prigozhin rebellion in Russia
...
Prigozhin likely intends to truly conduct an armed rebellion against the Russian MoD, rather than expecting Kremlin support to compel MoD leadership changes or only escalating rhetorically. Prigozhin may have wildly miscalculated and called for an armed rebellion incorrectly thinking that he would have Putin’s backing, considering Putin’s past tenuous relationship with the MoD and Shoigu. This contingency is however extraordinarily unlikely, considering that Putin has recently more firmly aligned himself with the MoD, and the Kremlin’s responses to Prigozhin’s posturing thus far have indicated surprise and a lack of agreement with Prigozhin.[17] Prigozhin’s actions and statements may alternatively be a rhetorical overreach in his ongoing dispute with the MoD and his campaign to retain his wavering influence within the Russian information space following the culmination of Wagner’s Bakhmut effort. However, this contingency is also highly unlikely, as initial indicators of actual Wagner movements are observable and the Kremlin is not responding to Prigozhin’s statements as only rhetoric.
It is therefore most likely that Prigozhin fully intends for Wagner to move against MoD leadership and forcibly remove them from power, more likely against the Southern Military District command in Rostov-on-Don but possibly also against Moscow. ISW is unable to confirm exactly where the bulk of Wagner forces are currently located, but it currently appears more likely that Prigozhin intends for Wagner to move on the MoD assets in Rostov. Following Wagner’s withdrawal from Bakhmut in late May and early June, a large contingent of Wagner forces likely remained in rear areas of Ukraine, particularly in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, or else at Wagner’s training facility near Molkino, Krasnodar Krai. Considering the relative proximity of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and Krasnodar Krai to Rostov Oblast, the more likely course of action may be that Prigozhin views the MoD in Rostov as the most viable target of a Wagner armed rebellion. Prigozhin claimed at 0200 local time (1900 EST) that Wagner forces have crossed Russia’s international border into Rostov Oblast and claimed they face no resistance, but ISW has not observed visual confirmed of any Wagner movements as of the time of this publication.[18]
An armed Wagner attack against the Russian military leadership in Rostov-on-Don would have significant impacts on Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Rostov-on-Don houses both the headquarters of the SMD, whose 58th Combined Arms Army is currently decisively engaged in defensive operations against Ukrainian counteroffensives in southern Ukraine, and the command center for the Russian Joint Group of Forces in Ukraine as a whole.[19] Rostov-on-Don is therefore a critical command and control membrane for the Russian army, and any threats to the MoD’s presence are likely to have ramifications on some critical aspects of the war effort.
...
The chances of this rebellion being successful and overthrowing the Russian army or government are remote. What the rebellion will do is complicate the Russian effort against Ukraine, and it may give the Ukraine government an opportunity to deal with the Russian forces that remain in Ukraine. The Russian military has been struggling already in its war efforts and has been losing ground in some occupied oblasts. The Wagner group that is led by Prigozhin is a sign of internal weakness inside the Russian military.
See, also:
Russia accuses mercenary boss of mutiny after he says Moscow killed 2,000 of his men
Russia accused mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin of calling for an armed mutiny on Friday after he alleged, without providing evidence, that the military leadership had killed 2,000 of his fighters and vowed to stop what he called its "evil".
As a long-running standoff between him and the Defence Ministry appeared to come to a head, the ministry issued a statement, saying Prigozhin's accusations were "not true and are an informational provocation."
Prigozhin said his actions did not amount to a military coup. But Russia's FSB security service opened a criminal case against him for calling for an armed mutiny, the TASS news agency said on Friday, citing the National Anti-terrorism Committee.
The Kremlin said President Vladimir Putin had been informed and that "necessary measures are being taken".
The standoff, many of the details of which remained unclear, looked like the biggest domestic crisis Putin has faced since he sent thousands of troops into Ukraine in February last year in what he called "a special military operation."
...
And:
Troy Offenbecker, a former U.S. Marine who has been fighting against Russian forces in Ukraine since June of last year, was supposed to be on a break.
He’d been fighting with the 3rd Battalion of the Ukrainian Foreign Legion and had taken several days off to try to decompress last week. Then his buddies in a different unit—the 1st Battalion—called him up to see if he wanted to attempt an assault on Russian forces near Bakhmut, where heavy fighting has been underway for months. The team said they had worked out a way to cut around the Russian drones’ thermal imaging.
Ukrainian military officials have repeatedly stated Bakhmut is a key focus of Kyiv’s counteroffensive against Russian forces. Just days before this mission, Ukrainian officials announced that the counteroffensive had begun in earnest. Russians had been trying and failing to seize Bakhmut from Ukraine for months, suffering what America’s top general called a “slaughter-fest for the Russians” in March, eventually claiming victory in May.
Offenbecker jumped at the chance to join in on the action and on Thursday last week he found himself fighting and killing Russians at close range, throwing grenades, and tripping over dead bodies that littered the battlefield.
“That proximity—being within a foot undetected—that’s the first time I’d ever gotten that close and had them not even have any idea that we were sitting right on top of them,” he told The Daily Beast.
...
The small patrol was outnumbered seven to one, but it managed to get inside the Russian lines and killed several Russian troops before leaving the area.
And:
Ukrainian military storm Russian positions near Krasnohorivka, occupied since 2014 — video
And:
And:
Putin’s aura of invincibility is shattered - and in Russia, weakness is terminal
For Vladimir Putin, this is the end of the road.
He may just survive an armed rebellion by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries but he will be permanently damaged and his Kremlin days are numbered.
Mr Putin’s aura of invincibility and control, badly fractured by his misguided and failed invasion of Ukraine, will now be shattered.
...
And:
Putin is at risk of losing his iron grip on power. The next 24 hours are critical
This just does not happen in Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Especially in public.
The Russian president is facing the most serious threat to his hold on power in all the 23 years he’s run the nuclear state. And it is staggering to behold the veneer of total control he has maintained all that time – the ultimate selling point of his autocracy – crumble overnight.
It was both inevitable and impossible. Inevitable, as the mismanagement of the war had meant only a system as homogenously closed and immune to criticism as the Kremlin could survive such a heinous misadventure. And impossible as Putin’s critics simply vanish, or fall out of windows, or are poisoned savagely. Yet now the fifth largest army in the world is facing a weekend in which fratricide – the turning of their guns upon their fellow soldiers – is the only thing that can save the Moscow elite from collapse.
...
And:
And:
The headquarters of the Southern Military District in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don is surrounded by tanks and men in uniform, while it is not known for certain who exactly surrounded the headquarters – servicemen of the Russian army or mercenaries of the Wagner Private Military Group (PMC).
Source: Russian publication Meduza; Telegram channel Astra
Details: According to Meduza, an open photo bank of the Russian state-owned news agency TASS indicated that the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don has been encircled by the militants of Wagner PMC.
At the same time, the newspaper notes, the founder of Conflict Intelligence Team Ruslan Leviev suggests that the armed men in the centre of Rostov are servicemen of the Russian Ministry of Defence.
...
And:
Russian propaganda is beginning to prepare Russians for defeat, believes expert veteran
Comments
Post a Comment