Swing state polls give Trump a Romney like chance?

A recent round of polls in battleground states shows the contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump much tighter than national polling.
Traditional swing states show a battle similar to the fight in 2012 between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, with one exception. The emergence of Pennsylvania as a toss-up contest has already shifted the landscape ahead of November.

On Thursday, Democrat-leaning firm PPP released a poll of Virginia voters showing Clinton leading Trump by 3 points in the Old Dominion. Last year, PPP showed Clinton leading Trump by 10 points in Virginia. Since then, Clinton’s favorablity has decreased, while Trump’s has improved.

Trump is still slightly more unpopular than Clinton in Virginia, yet the head-to-head match-up is within the margin of error. Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by just 4 points in Virginia, essentially the same result currently polled between Trump and Clinton.

So, even though 60 percent of voters have an unfavorable view of Trump, he is tied with Clinton in Virginia. Clinton leads among women by just 11 points, only slightly better than Obama’s 9-point margin with women against Romney. Trump leads Clinton by 4 points among men, the same margin that Romney won against Obama.
Romney, of course, still lost.  What the polls might suggest is that Clinton's huge ad buys in these states have not done much for her campaign.  It is similar to the phenomena that happened with Trump in the primaries where he seemed immune to the negative ads.


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