Obama continues to underestimate ISIL

Institute for the Study of War:

Suspected ISIS attacks in Lebanon, Jordan, and France belied claims of ISIS's "containment". U.S. President Barack Obama's claimed on November 13 that ISIS had been "contained" in Iraq and Syria by ongoing anti-ISIS operations. ISIS nonetheless conducted major expansions of its campaign against vulnerable neighboring states as well as the West. ISIS claimed a deadly double suicide attack against a Hezbollah-controlled neighborhood in Beirut, Lebanon on November 12. Lebanese security forces claimed to foil a second suicide attack in the Northern Lebanese city of Tripoli on the same day linked to either ISIS or Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra (JN). ISIS may also be responsible for a shooting at an international police training center near Amman, Jordan on November 9. The attack occurred on the tenth anniversary of a series of coordinated suicide bombings in Jordan by al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). ISIS maintains latent support in both Lebanon and Jordan, and may intend to undermine the stability of both countries in response to further pressure in Iraq and Syria. These developments threaten to spark a dramatic deterioration in regional security, laying the foundation for future ethno-sectarian conflict and further state collapse in the Middle East. Meanwhile, multiple assailants conducted attacks in at least six locations across Paris with automatic weapons and explosives, killing over 120 civilians in the deadliest terrorist attack in the history of modern France. French authorities claimed that the attack involved up to three suicide vests (SVESTs), marking what may be the first recorded SVEST attacks in Western Europe. U.S. intelligence officials suspect that the attackers were jihadists who returned from fighting in Iraq or Syria. If ISIS assumes responsibility for the attacks, the violence in Paris would represent ISIS's largest attack in the West.
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Sorry for the lack of links to this material which was part of an email update from the Institute.  The Emphasis was in the original.  It is consistent with my on thoughts on the President's misjudgment of the dangers posed by ISIL.  News reports indicated that one of the attackers was in fact captured and claimed to be a Syrian recruited by ISIL.  Attackers were also reported as saying that the mass murder for Allah attacks were revenge for what is happening in Syria.

It also fits a pattern for ISIL.  When that group is under attack their first response is to strike out on another front.  They have been attack directly with the killing of Jihadi John the head chopper and the cut off of their supply lines into Mosul in Iraq.  They lost the city of Sinjar in that operation.

One of the fundamental failures of the Obama administration strategy in dealing with the group is a reliance on a war of attrition rather than a more effective means of taking their real estate they control which is the key to their claim of a caliphate and their attractiveness to recruiting jihadis like the ones that have been striking out of late.

It also raises serious questions about the importing of thousands of Syrian refugees into the US.  It seems quite possible that the Paris terrorist were part of teh recent wave of refugees from Syria into Europe.