Democrats have more to lose in 2016

Matthew Dowd:

The storyline by many in the media goes as follows: the GOP is in dire straits, they are in the midst of tearing themselves apart by a civil war, they have a disorganized field of candidates, they are about to lose badly for president and are on the verge of disintegrating as a major party.

That is how a number of folks in the media (and many Democratic operatives/insiders) describe the circumstances of the GOP dilemma at hand and ahead. Some of this is true, and looks bad for the GOP, but some of it is just fiction. But let's take a moment to understand what party faces the biggest problems ahead in the aftermath of a loss in the presidential race next November.

Reasonable worst case scenario for the GOP: they lose the presidential race, lose control of the United States Senate by a few votes, lose a few seats in the House of Representatives but retain control, and retain a majority of governor's and state legislative bodies.

Reasonable best case scenario for the GOP: they win the presidential race, expand control of the Senate, retain control of the House, and expand majority of governor's and state legislative bodies.

Reasonable worst case scenario for the Dems: they lose the presidential race, lose seats in the Senate, don't gain control of the House, and lose more governor's and state legislative races.

Reasonable best case scenario for the Dems: they win the presidential race, gain control of the Senate by a slim margin, pick up a few seats in the House but don't control, and win a few governor's races and legislative seats.

So when you look at the various scenarios for the 2016 general election you reach the following conclusion: the upside for the GOP is much better than any upside for the Dems, and the downside for the Dems is much, much worse than any downside for the GOP.
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There is more.

There is also the fact that in current polling Hillary Clinton is losing to at least three of the top four GOP candidates in current polling despite having support of much of the "media super PAC."  Media attacks on GOP front runners have so far failed to dent their support.   The pattern has been seizing on some event of statement which the media declares to be disqualifying until the next poll comes out and finds just the opposite.  The media embraces President Obama's statements about refugees and the polls then show more support for the GOP nominees position by a significant margin.  Obama is looking like the same drag on Democrats he was in 2014.

Fox News latest poll shows six GOP candidates defeating Hilary Clinton.