Republicans gain ground in voter registrations around US
Republican gains in voter registration are raising red flags for Democrats in key states, underscoring the inroads the GOP made across the country in 2024.
Active registered Republicans now outnumber Democrats in battleground Nevada for the first time in nearly two decades, according to January data from the state. The GOP has also gained recent ground in New Jersey, a traditionally blue state, and Trump this week celebrated that the voter registration majority in Florida’s Hillsborough county switched from blue to red.
The latest shifts, following eroding Democratic registration in states like Pennsylvania and Arizona last year, underscore the work that lies ahead for Democrats as they look to rebuild and retake power in Washington.
“People switch the way they vote, then they switch their registrations. And you think about Nevada and New Jersey, those are two states that saw pretty significant shifts towards the Republicans in November,” said Marc Meredith, a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania.
The exact factors behind changing registration numbers vary between states, and not every state counts its voters by party, Meredith noted. But the changes in Nevada and elsewhere largely reflect the voter behavior seen last fall, when Trump swept the battlegrounds and improved on his 2020 margins across the board, including in blue strongholds, as most of the country moved rightward.
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In North Carolina, Democrats were roughly 322,000 ahead in registration tallies in early Feb. 2021, but Republicans have shrunk that edge to just 37,500 as of the start of this month.
And it’s not just battlegrounds where Republicans are seeing inroads.
Nationally, Democrats had a 5-point edge over Republicans in registered voters across the board in the run-up to the 2020 election, per survey data from Pew Research last year, but that partisan divide shrunk to just 1 point ahead of 2024.
In the blue stronghold of New Jersey, Republicans gained 10,000 voters and Democrats lost 2,000 in January, according to calculations from the New Jersey Globe. Democrats still hold an edge of nearly 1 million registrants, but the gap is smaller than at this point four years ago.
“What we’re seeing in New Jersey is kind of a microcosm of what is going on nationally,” said New Jersey-based Democratic strategist Henry de Koninck.
“There’s a bit of a realignment happening in terms of working class voters away from Democrats and towards the Republican Party. There’s slippage with young voters away from Democrats and towards Republicans. And the Democratic Party is at a multi-decade low in terms of popularity,” de Konick said. “And that’s being reflected in our registration.”
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I can recall when Texas was a Democrat stronghold. That is certainly not the case now. It is difficult for Democrats to win a statewide race anymore. They still have pockets of support in some inner city races but they have pretty much lost the suburbs and rural areas. The Biden presidency was a disaster for the country and for the Democrats.
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