Another bad night for the pollsters
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According to Cohn, this election "should be a Republican victory" if analyzed on paper. The reasons? The poor economy, President Joe Biden's unpopularity, and the fact that voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. Cohn, moreover, explained the "signs of a Republican victory have been building for years," citing Republican advantages in party identification, party registration, and Election Day turnout in battleground states.
What's worse, Cohn said the polls — like they did in 2016 and 2020 — could be once again underestimating Trump.
"The pollsters never found a convincing explanation for what went wrong, and the simplest one is that they just can’t reach enough of Mr. Trump’s less engaged supporters. Despite their efforts over the last eight years, there may simply be no fix for this problem," he wrote.
"In this scenario, Ms. Harris’s apparent strength among white and older voters, or her resilience in the Midwestern battlegrounds, is nothing more than another polling mirage — in exactly the same states where the polls got it wrong four and eight years ago," Cohn explained. "Add in Mr. Trump’s gains among young, Black and Hispanic voters and you end up with a decisive victory for him."
If this scenario plays out on Election Day, Cohn predicted that it would initiate a "new era of politics," one defined by a historic voter realignment.
"The rise of Mr. Trump's brand of conservative populism has transformed American politics. It redefined the basic political conflict between the two parties. It led to major demographic shifts, first with Mr. Trump making huge gains among the white working class and now with nonwhite voters, while Democrats gained among white college graduates," Cohn wrote. "If the shifts endure after Mr. Trump, historians might well look back and say that the 2024 result was the culmination of the populist realignment he unleashed a decade ago."
The result of that realignment, according to Cohn, is not only a Republican Party that does not resemble the GOP of old, but the death of the contemporary Democratic Party.
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Nothing is forever in politics. Democrats in this election chose a weak candidate who was tied to a weak president who unleashed inflation and saw wars develop in Europe and the Middle East. The Democrats will have to find new leaders with new ideas to make a comeback. For Republicans, they have to hope Trump can be as successful as he was previously. This time he will have a Congress run by Republicans which should give him an edge.
See also:
2024 election coverage most slanted in history for network news, study determines
A new study suggests that Vice President Kamala Harris received the most lopsided news coverage in the country's history when comparing reports from major networks surrounding the presidential election.
Media Research Center evaluated coverage of Harris on ABC, CBS, and NBC and found that 78% of the coverage for the vice president was positive versus 22% negative.
Donald Trump, on the other hand, received a whopping 85% negative coverage and just 15% positive.
This equates to a 63-point advantage in positive coverage for Harris, the largest gap in history, according to the study.
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The media may have been a bigger loser in this election than the Democrats.
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