Putin's paranoia about missile defense

Victor Abramowicz:

During his presidential address on 1 March, Vladimir Putin revealed additional information on six major new Russian weapons systems, some unveiled for the first time. Four of the weapons, discussed below, are principally relevant in a strategic nuclear sense; that is, they carry atomic warheads and would most likely be used in a full-scale war, fired at the homeland of an adversary.

While claiming that the systems were not aimed at anyone, Putin made clear they had been developed to defeat the threat of the U.S. Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) program. Putin said the U.S. system might eventually be able to intercept of all Russia’s missiles, resulting “in the complete devaluation of Russia’s nuclear potential” and leaving the country open to attack. What the Kremlin really fears is the potential for a BMD breakout, whereby the U.S. secretly deploys huge numbers of defensive interceptor missiles without Russia having a chance to prepare countermeasures.

Most Western analyses have little sympathy for such fears. Moscow knows that the BMD system is aimed at defeating small numbers of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) launched from “rogue states”, such as North Korea and Iran. This is reinforced by the small numbers of interceptors deployed. Only 36 (out of 44 planned in total) of the main anti-ICBM element are in service. This is clearly far too few to threaten Russia’s approximately 1700 warheads spread across nearly 500 ICBMs and sea-launched missiles.

Further, these interceptors, which are designed to attack ICBMs in the vulnerable middle portion of their flight, are very unsuited to any “breakout” because they are enormous (and therefore hard to hide) and very expensive. They are also dubiously effective, recording only a 50% success rate in simple tests stacked in their favour.

But this is not the part of BMD that really worries Moscow. What concerns the Kremlin is another program Putin specifically mentioned, the ship-based Aegis BMD system. This is usually discounted in Western writings as its limited performance renders it largely ineffective against ICBMs. However, with its most recent SM3 Block IIA missiles and future upgrades, Aegis will have at least the technical potential to defend the entire U.S.

Aegis is also ideally suited to a breakout, being relatively cheap and able to fit in the standard Mark 41 launcher used across the U.S. Navy: hundreds of the missiles could be deployed without detection. The system’s main constraint in ICBM defence is its limited speed and range, meaning it can only intercept missile warheads when they approach re-entering the atmosphere. Thus, if these targets can manoeuvre, they might circumvent these defences.

The four strategic weapons announced by Putin are well placed to counter this perceived threat, as emphasised in the videos accompanying his speech showing the systems targeting the U.S.. The first two are the Sarmat super-heavy ICBM, and the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, basically a super-manoeuvrable ICBM warhead, many of which would fit on the enormous Sarmat missile. Also there is the Kanyon long-ranged unmanned submarine, which clearly cannot be targeted by BMD interceptors, although it can attack U.S. coastal areas, including where Aegis-equipped ships would patrol. Finally there is an as-yet unnamed nuclear-powered cruise missile that would fly at too low a level to be affected by U.S. defences.

Yet in reality the new weapons represent complex and expensive solutions to a problem that largely doesn’t exist. The U.S. has not shown the least interest in degrading Russian defences wholesale since the long-abandoned “Star Wars” program of the 1980s. This is reinforced by the limited numbers of interceptors so far deployed: the U.S. could afford to install more, but it simply chooses not to.
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There is more.

I suspect that most of the weapons Putin touted are vaporware.  They are planned but not near implementation.  Russia is struggling just to keep up with more conventional weapons such as stealth fighters.  Its attempt at stealth fighters is still in the testing phase over 10 years after the US made the F-22 operational.  The F-35 is well ahead of teh Russian effort and could also be used as a missile defense weapon that would be hard for Putin to deal with.