In the Republican primary race, the newest NBC News/SurveyMonkey online poll shows Donald Trump has the frontrunner spot to himself, with 28% support among Republican and independent voters who lean Republican. Support for Ben Carson, who was tied with Trump in last month's online poll, has fallen off by 8 points and the former neurosurgeon is now tied with Ted Cruz at 18%. Trailing not too far behind is Marco Rubio, at 11%. The next tier of candidates has a lot of catching up to do, with Jeb Bush at 4% and Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina each with 3%.
During the volatile primary season, the attention that is gained from being the lead candidate in the polls can be a mixed blessing. The media tends to shift its focus to those candidates leading the race - and that spotlight can seem especially harsh to those who are newer to the political scene. At the same time, rival candidates are quick to target any apparent or imagined flaw of those in the lead. This is what happened to Ben Carson during the last two weeks, as he came under scrutiny for biographical details in his memoir and criticism for his lack of foreign policy expertise.
Carson and the other Republican candidates still have more than two months before the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary to gain traction. Looking at a number of subgroups may offer some clues as to how the early contests could go. The NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll was conducted nationwide of 5,775 adults, including 2,440 Republican and Republican-leaning voters, which allows for us to look at key voting blocs.
Ben Carson is still the preferred candidate of 25% of white evangelicals, but Donald Trump (23%) and Ted Cruz (22%) have clearly eaten away at what used to be the main pillar of Carson support. Among those who identify as very conservative, Ted Cruz now has the highest level of support, with 40%, overtaking both Carson (15%) and Trump (28%).
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Cruz has seen his popularity grow in evangelical groups in recent weeks and some of it appears to be a movement away from Carson. Look for the media to turn their focus on Cruz as he makes his move. They and the GOP establishment probably view him as scary as they view Carson and Trump.
Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh · 1h NOW: JD Vance absolutely decimates Gov. JB Pritzker "Governor Pritzker will talk a lot about how bad Donald Trump is, about how bad I am, and about how bad the administration is. He is the governor of a state that where its biggest city has murder rates that rival the most violent places in the THIRD WORLD!" "WHY is he so mad at Donald Trump for trying to keep Chicagoans safe? He should be mad at the CRIMINALS that he has failed to keep at bay. We're trying to help him, and we're trying to help the residents of his biggest city." "I wish that he would let us, because he certainly isn't doing the job himself!" Chicago could be so much better if it had more responsible leadership. Democrats in Illinois don't appear up to the job.
Washington Examiner: TRUMP IMMIGRATION OFFICIALS STILL STRUGGLING WITH BIDEN’S LEGACY. Trump administration immigration authorities not only have to contend with violent attacks, rioters, angry activists, and others trying to obstruct enforcement of federal immigration law. They also have to deal with the obstacles former President Joe Biden left in their path. You’ve seen videos of resistance to Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents doing their jobs. Just yesterday, the Democratic mayor of Chicago, Brandon Johnson, declared the city an “ ICE-free zone .” Gov. JB Pritzker (D-IL), Johnson’s ally in the fight against enforcing federal immigration law, referred to federal immigration agents as Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s “thugs.” ... Biden opened the borders to illegals, and it looks like Democrat controlled cities want to do the same thing. I suspect the Democrats want the illegals becasue not enough American citizens are willing to support Democrat candi...
Conservative Tree House: ... From a risk management perspective, initially the surveillance and spying operation was a low-risk endeavor. Obama held power and was going to hand off operations to Hillary. The Clinton administration would retain the officials who were doing the surveillance/spying, and no one would ever know. Donald Trump was not expected to win the election. When he did, all of the participants were suddenly at risk. President Obama and every member of his cabinet involved in the spying operations, then used Clinton’s “Russiagate” smear to cover up Obama’s “Spygate” activity. The IRS was used to identify targets 2010 through 2012, until discovered in April ’12. Suddenly, President Obama has a problem. President Obama then sends his Chief of Staff, Jack Lew, to run the IRS and block discoveries around the IRS weaponization. From 2012 through April 2016, the Obama administration was spying on their political opposition using the FBI to conduct surveillance through...
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