WSJ:
The Senate is the Democratic bastion of power in the new Congress, but it will be a sometimes-shaky platform for President Barack Obama's agenda as lawmakers in his own party prepare for their re-election bids next year.
An unusually large group of 23 Democrats must defend Senate seats in 2012, many in conservative and swing states such as Nebraska, Missouri and West Virginia. Republicans, by contrast, will defend only 10 Senate seats.
Many of the Democrats were first elected in a far different climate four years ago, when then-President George W. Bush was losing favor and an anti-GOP windstorm swept Democrats into office. Now facing different political currents, some Democratic senators are taking steps to chart a course independent of Mr. Obama—to appeal to political independents and fiscal conservatives.
The president, for example, is pushing legislation to allow some children of illegal immigrants to become citizens. That appeals to Latino voters. But when the bill came up in December, senators opposing it included Democrats Jon Tester of Montana, Ben Nelson of Nebraska and Joe Manchin of West Virginia. Mr. Obama has pledged to try again.
The White House says it will craft a tight federal budget, but swing-state Democrats might demand even deeper spending reductions. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D., Mo.) last year led efforts to cut $30 billion from Mr. Obama's 2011 budget request.
Democrats facing re-election in economically struggling states such as Ohio and Michigan have said they would fight the White House's trade-liberalization pact with South Korea, potentially undercutting the president over a major economic issue.
In the November elections, Democrats lost their majority in the House as well as six Senate seats, bringing their ranks well below the 60 votes it usually takes to pass major legislation in the Senate. The new Senate will have 47 Republicans and 53 Democrats and allied senators.
Democrats from conservative and swing states are not likely to coalesce and vote as a bloc, but their fate as a group in the 2012 election will make or break the party's ability to retain or expand its narrow majority in the Senate.
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There is much more including the at risk Democrats who remain in the Senate. I think this is another reason why the Democrats will be making a mistake if they try to alter the filibuster rules, since they may wind up seeing it used against them to pass GOP priorities.
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