Plans for moving troops from Iraq to Afghanistan in 2009

Michael Gordon and Thom Shanker:

The United States would carry out a modest shift of American forces from Iraq to Afghanistan by early next year under a confidential recommendation to President Bush by the Pentagon’s top civilian and military leaders, according to Bush administration officials.

The number of American combat brigades in Iraq would shrink to 14 in February from 15, according to the recommendation. All told, the number of American forces in Iraq, currently about 146,000, would drop by nearly 8,000 by March.

The reduction is smaller than some officials had earlier suggested might be possible before President Bush leaves office in January, given the significant decline in violence in Iraq. But it reflects the caution of Gen. David H. Petraeus, who is leaving his post as the senior American commander in Iraq this month, about the still-unsettled situation in Iraq.

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Under the proposal, an Army brigade and a Marine battalion would be sent to Afghanistan by early next year, adding about 4,500 troops to American forces there. They would represent a partial but still significant move toward meeting repeated requests from American commanders in Afghanistan for three more brigades, a reinforcement that the commanders say is necessary to carry out the mission there and to combat a resurgent Taliban.

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As the consultations over troop cuts began, General Petraeus took a very cautious approach about further reductions in Iraq, recommending that 15 brigades be maintained in Iraq through next June, administration officials said. But Mr. Gates endorsed a recommendation by Admiral Mullen that the number of brigades be reduced to 14 early next year. Other administration officials argued that such a reduction was necessary to demonstrate to the American public that there was a return from the security gains made during the so-called surge and to keep the pressure on Iraqi officials to make political progress.

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Obama may be responsible for the slower reductions in Iraq. His plan to reduce the forces in Iraq on a rigid schedule will have to start with a higher number of troops and therefore it will give Iraq a few more months to wrap up the victory against the terrorist. If he were willing to accept the judgment of the commanders instead of insisting on a rigid schedule, they would have more flexibility in moving troops to Afghanistan.