The state of the race between Harris and Trump
National Review:
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This cycle, Republican political operatives continue to boast publicly — and privately with their donors — about how Trump is performing better now in the RealClearPolitics battleground-state polling average than he was at the same point in the race in 2016 and 2020. With two weeks to go, he leads every single one of the top seven battlegrounds in RCP’s polling average.
And yet statistically, the race remains a coin flip. Other than possibly the 2000 presidential election, “I really do think it’s the election where the outcome is really most in doubt that I think I’ve ever seen,” says GOP pollster Patrick Ruffini of Echelon Insights.
One demographic area that has interested pollsters is the gender gap, with women favoring Harris by double digits this cycle in some surveys and men showing a similar swing toward Trump. But other parts of the electorate remain a mystery. “I don’t think we really have a good fix on what’s going to happen in the suburbs.” As Ruffini sees it, “there’s conflicting evidence” about whether Democrats are making gains there, or if Trump will earn some points with suburban voters who feel that the cost of living was lower under his presidency.
Still, after the Democratic ticket’s “brat” summer and Harris’s strong debate in early September, Republicans feel confident that the vibes are shifting their way now, when momentum matters most. From his latest McDonald’s drive-thru stunt to his casual “bro” podcast appearances in recent weeks, the former president’s campaign has made a deliberate effort to showcase his persona more on the campaign trail this cycle to engage low-propensity voters, particularly men, and turn them out to the polls.
“It’s not just his time hosting The Apprentice show. President Trump has been the best brand manager and communicator for himself and his businesses for his entire career,” Trump campaign strategist Brian Hughes said in an interview with National Review. “Part of what makes that work is that he is human. He is funny. He is thoughtful. There’s a lot about him that the mainstream media has created this caricature to try to avoid talking about or avoid showing.” Or as Hughes’s colleague Alex Bruesewitz put it an interview with Semafor this week: “What we’re doing better this time around than he’s ever done before is leveraging Trump as a person: The celebrity of Donald Trump, the unmatched aura of Donald Trump.”
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I don't think Harris is a great candidate. What she has going for her is the Democrat machine which generates votes regardless of the quality of the candidate. Trump was a far better president than Biden and Biden is better than Harris. The millionaires appear to want Harris for some reason and they are drowning her in funding for ads. About ninety percent of the media is also supporting Harris despite her lack of qualifications.
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The survey revealed inflation and the economy as top concerns for voters, with 47% citing them as the most important issues. Close behind were immigration and border security, prioritized by 43% of respondents.
Both of these topics align closely with Trump’s campaign message and have been long-standing strengths for him. As New Mexico is a border state with a significant Hispanic population, this could play to Trump’s advantage, particularly given his improved performance among Hispanic voters.
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