Russia claims that resistance to its aggression is existential threat
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The Kremlin is likely intensifying its efforts to present Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as an existential war to set informational conditions for a protracted war in Ukraine. Russian and social media sources circulated images on January 19 and 20 showing Russian officials installing air defense systems on the roof of the Russian Ministry of Defense building in Moscow and elsewhere near the city.[20] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov refused to comment on the images, and State Duma Deputy Yevgeny Lebedev called them fake.[21] Some Russian milbloggers responded to these images with satisfaction that Moscow residents would finally be aware that Russia is involved in a "difficult war" in Ukraine.[22] The Kremlin likely deployed the air defense systems in Moscow to generate inflammatory images that portray the war as more threatening to the Russian public. It is unlikely, however, that the Kremlin believes that Ukraine would target Moscow and it likely engaged in this ostentatious play to support intensifying information operations to prepare the Russian domestic information space for a protracted war in Ukraine and further sacrifices.[23] This demonstration is also likely a part of the emerging information operation to contextualize the war in Ukraine in the Russian mythos of the Great Patriotic War, which is likely meant to increase Russian support for the war effort and further mobilization by absurdly portraying Ukraine as threatening Moscow and the rest of the Russian heartland in a way to the way Nazi Germany did during its invasion of the Soviet Union.[24]
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The Kremlin continues to promote information operations threatening escalation over Western military assistance to Ukraine. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on January 20 that if Western defense ministers decided to provide Ukraine with heavy tanks at their meeting at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany, then this would only "add problems for Ukraine and the Ukrainian people."[30] The Kremlin seeks to undermine Western willingness to offer aid to Ukraine by stoking fears of an escalation, whether between Russia and the West or of the war in Ukraine itself, that Russia cannot execute.[31] The Kremlin will likely continue to respond to Western conversations about further military assistance to Ukraine with vague threats of escalation that have no corresponding action.
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The Russian information space sometimes looks like a fantasyland in support of blatant aggression by Putin and his followers in Russia. There is no evidence that Ukraine was ever a threat to Russia. The reality is that the war in Ukraine is an attempt by the Putin regime to create a new Russian empire similar to the old Soviet Union. It is also true that the war has exposed the Russian military's weakness in equipment and operational skills. One of the tells is the use of mercenaries like the Wagner group to supplement its army. That group is made up largely of criminals who were recruited from Russian prisons. Their casualty rate is extraordinarily high in combat as is also the case with many Russian units.
What Putin has blundered into is the degradation of his conventional military in a totally unnecessary war. He seems incapable of recognizing that the war is a mistake that is making Russia's conventional military weaker the longer it continues while NATO supplies Ukraine with armaments for its defense.
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"The Russian casualties — last time I reported out on it publicly, I said it was well over 100,000. I would say it's significantly well over 100,000 now," Milley said at a news conference alongside Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in Germany, providing a slight update on a figure the top US general offered in November.
Milley said that the "tremendous amount of casualties" suffered by Russia included "regular military, and also their mercenaries in the Wagner Group and other type forces that are fighting with the Russians."
"Putin could end this war today," Milley said, "It's turning into an absolute catastrophe for Russia."
"Ukraine has also suffered tremendously," Milley added. "You know that there's a significant amount of innocent civilians that have been killed in a result of the Russian actions. The Russians are hitting civilian infrastructure. There's a significant amount of economic damage, a significant amount of damage to the energy infrastructure, and the Ukrainian military has suffered a significant amount of casualties themselves."
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And:
US Defence Secretary: Russia suffers significant battle losses and is running out of ammunition
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