Putin concerned about military age men fleeing new mobilization

 ISW:

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The Kremlin is attempting to downplay new restrictions on crossing the Russian border, likely to contain panic over a potential second mobilization wave. Head of the Russian State Duma Committee on Transport and Infrastructure Development Yevgeny Moskvichev prepared amendments to the Russian law on crossing the Russian border for drivers on January 25.[61] Moskvichev originally stated that these amendments will require all drivers to reserve a date and time to cross the border between March 1, 2023, and March 1, 2024, via a government information system.[62] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed on January 24 that the Kremlin is not considering any restrictions on the movement of Russian citizens from Russia following Moskvichev’s announcement, and Moskvichev later clarified that such reservations will only apply to commercial drivers.[63] The Kremlin may have attempted to retract or obfuscate its originally stated vision for the border crossing in response to Russian concern over movement limitations. ISW previously reported that Russian officials established several mobile military recruitment centers on Russian borders during the first wave of mobilization, and will likely use the premise of vehicle registration to obtain information about men of military age attempting to flee the country.[64]

Russian President Vladimir Putin may be attempting to discreetly conduct another wave of mobilization to retain his domestic support base. US and Western officials told CNN that Putin is planning to discreetly mobilize as many as 200,000 men because he is aware that the previous announcement of "partial mobilization" was very unpopular in Russia.[65] The officials noted that the Kremlin even conducted domestic polling to gauge Russians’ perception of mobilization. The Kremlin, however, likely wasted the funds spent on such polling: over 700,000 men fleeing Russia during the first wave of mobilization should have been a sufficient indicator of Russians’ willingness to be mobilized to fight in this war.[66] The officials also added that Putin likely had not made up his mind yet on when to start the "silent mobilization."

Putin is also trying to regulate the Russian information space in preparation for protracted war or ahead of mobilization. Putin signed a decree amending the Russian fundamentals on state cultural policy to include provisions to protect society from "external ideological values and the expansion of destructive and psychological influences."[67] The amendment states that the Kremlin is introducing new measures to defend Russian "historic truths" such as Russian language against many "unfriendly states" and organizations that seek to undermine Russia’s "cultural sovereignty."[68] Putin will likely use this decree to further impose censorship on Western outlets and raise domestic support for the Russian war effort. A prominent Russian nationalist figure noted that the Russian population, however, still lacks insights into the goals of the Russian war in Ukraine.[69]
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Outside of a few politicians who are cronies of Putin, there appears to be little support for this war.  That 700,000 men fled the country at the time of the first mobilization is remarkably telling about the support for the war. It is hard to blame them since the war makes little sense.  Ukraine was never a serious threat to Russia.  In fact, Putin thought he would take all of Ukraine in a matter of a couple of weeks.  His claim that he was concerned about Nazis also made little sense and there is no evidence to date that Russia has rounded up any Nazis.  What the war is really about is Putin's attempt to restore the Russian empire.