Russian offensive in Ukraine expected

 ISW:

Western, Ukrainian, and Russian sources continue to indicate that Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive, supporting ISW’s assessment that an offensive in the coming months is the most likely course of action (MLCOA).[1] NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg stated on January 30 that there are no indications that Russia is preparing to negotiate for peace and that all indicators point to the opposite.[2] Stoltenberg noted that Russia may mobilize upwards of 200,000 personnel and is continuing to acquire weapons and ammunition through increased domestic production and partnerships with authoritarian states such as Iran and North Korea.[3] Stoltenberg emphasized that Russian President Vladimir Putin retains his maximalist goals in Ukraine.[4] Head of the Council of Reservists of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, Ivan Tymochko, relatedly stated that Russian forces are strengthening their grouping in Donbas as part of an anticipated offensive and noted that Russian forces will need to launch an offensive due to increasing domestic pressure for victory.[5] Stoltenberg’s and Tymochko’s statements support ISW’s previous forecast that Russian forces are setting conditions to launch an offensive effort, likely in Luhansk Oblast, in the coming months.[6] Russian milbloggers additionally continued to indicate that the Russian information space is setting conditions for and anticipating a Russian offensive. Milbloggers amplified a statement made by a Russian Telegram channel that the current pace and nature of Russian operations indicate that the main forces of the anticipated offensive and promised breakthrough have not yet “entered the battle.”[7] This statement suggests that Russian milbloggers believe that Russian forces have not yet activated the elements required for a decisive offensive effort.[8]

Russia and Iran continued efforts to deepen economic ties. NOTE: This item appeared in the Critical Threats Project (CTP)’s January 30 Iran Crisis Update. Iranian state media reported that Iran and Russia established direct financial communication channels between Iranian banks and more than 800 Russian banks on January 29.[9] Iranian Central Bank Deputy Governor Mohsen Karami announced that Iranian and Russian banks have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on financial messaging, effective immediately. Karami added that Iranian banks abroad were also included in the MoU and would be able to exchange standard banking messages with Russian banks.[10] Iranian officials and state-affiliated media outlets framed the MoU as a means to circumvent Western sanctions on Iran and Russia and compared the messaging system to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), which serves as the world’s largest financial messaging system.[11] ISW has previously reported on the deepening of economic and military ties between Tehran and Moscow.[12]

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The new offensive will require Russians finding the troops for such an effort along with reconstituting its mechanized war machinery from old tanks taken out of the warehouses.  Putin appears to have no compunction against throwing troops into a meatgrinder.

See, also:

Intel Reveals Putin on Thin Ice in Panicked Hunt for Troops

Russia is scrounging around for new ways to boost its military’s numbers in Ukraine without kicking off domestic backlash, according to a new British government intelligence assessment.

“The Russian leadership highly likely continues to search for ways to meet the high number of personnel required to resource any future major offensive in Ukraine, while minimizing domestic dissent,” the intelligence analysis, shared on Monday, said.

“Russian authorities are likely keeping open the option of another round of call-ups under the ‘partial mobilization,’” the assessment added.
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And:

 Waves of Russian troops 'crushed' in fresh assault on strategic eastern town

And:

 Ukraine Fends Off Russian Assault in the East

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“The enemy continues to suffer great losses,” the armed forces said in a statement, saying Russia had opened additional civilian medical points for wounded soldiers in the occupied Ukrainian city of Luhansk and other locations.

Russia’s military, bolstered by thousands of troops and paramilitary fighters it throws into offensive operations with little air or artillery cover, has battered Ukrainian positions in recent weeks as it aims for a breakthrough in the Donetsk region, which Russia claims as part of its territory.
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This suggests that the Russians are running out of resources for combined arms operations and are reluctant to put their fighter jets in harm's way. 

And:

Major new Russian assault in Ukraine unlikely to achieve breakthough, UK says

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There is a realistic possibility that Russia will continue to make local gains in the sector. However, it is unlikely that Russia has sufficient uncommitted troops in the area to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough."

It said Russian commanders were probably trying to develop a new axis of advance, as well as to divert Ukrainian forces from Bakhmut, a city further north that has been the main focus of Russia's offensive for months.
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And:

 Watch: Just How Bad Russia Is Losing Its War Against Ukraine

And:

 Putin's Ally On How To Force West To Negotiate — Position Hypersonic Missiles To Hit US In 5 Minutes

And:

 Armed Forces of Ukraine strike 3 command points in 24 hours General Staff

And:

 Former US Defense Secretary Robert Gates says Putin believes it's his 'destiny' to 'recreate the Russian Empire'