Democrats miscalculated on DACA and it cost them in shutdown

David Drucker:

Senate Democrats reluctantly voted to reopen the government on Monday after badly misjudging the political fault lines of a partial shutdown instigated to secure immigration concessions.

Minority Leader Charles Schumer of New York led his troops into a battle Friday. Democrats were encouraged by President Trump’s low approval ratings and penchant for off-message tweeting, the Republicans’ zero batting average in past shutdown fights, and a liberal base demanding action for “Dreamers.”

But five Senate Democrats up for re-election in red states immediately defected, a split in the party’s ranks not seen in years. They voted with Republicans — against leveraging their support for a must-pass spending bill for legislation preventing the deportation of at least 800,000 illegal immigrants brought to the U.S. as children through no fault of their own.

With public polling showing middling support, at best, for the minority’s strategy, Republicans’ confidence in their position went sky high: No vote on legislation to fix the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program until Democrats provided the votes to end the government shutdown.

These key developments, plus Trump keeping an unusually low profile, ran counter the Democrats’ expectations for how the shutdown would unfold. It provided Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., with latitude to maneuver and contributed to his outflanking Schumer in a test of political will.

“It’s the stupidest damn thing I’ve ever seen,” a Democratic operative in Washington with ties to Senate leadership said on condition of anonymity. “This is what happens when the caucus gets ginned up and ready to go into battle without thinking through the repercussions.”

Frank Sharry, executive director of the liberal immigration advocacy organization, America's Voice, added in a scathing statement: “Last week, I was moved to tears of joy when Democrats stood up and fought for progressive values and for Dreamers. Today, I am moved to tears of disappointment and anger that Democrats blinked."
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They were trying to get DACA in a must-pass situation for Trump which would dilute his veto threats on the baggage they want to affix to DACA.  Trump has laid out the terms for getting DACA.  The border wall is just one piece which the Democrats were prepared to concede.  Trump also wants an end to the immigration lottery, chain migration, and replacing them with a colorblind merit-based system. 

The so-called bipartisan approach that Durbin and Graham wanted will have little chance of getting a veto-proof margin.  That is why the Democrat immigration lobby is so distraught over the failure to leverage the shutdown.