New covert operation in Pakistan?

NY Times:

President Bush’s senior national security advisers are debating whether to expand the authority of the Central Intelligence Agency and the military to conduct far more aggressive covert operations in the tribal areas of Pakistan.

The debate is a response to intelligence reports that Al Qaeda and the Taliban are intensifying efforts there to destabilize the Pakistani government, several senior administration officials said.

Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and a number of President Bush’s top national security advisers met Friday at the White House to discuss the proposal, which is part of a broad reassessment of American strategy after the assassination 10 days ago of the Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto. There was also talk of how to handle the period from now to the Feb. 18 elections, and the aftermath of those elections.

Several of the participants in the meeting argued that the threat to the government of President Pervez Musharraf was now so grave that both Mr. Musharraf and Pakistan’s new military leadership were likely to give the United States more latitude, officials said. But no decisions were made, said the officials, who declined to speak for attribution because of the highly delicate nature of the discussions.

Many of the specific options under discussion are unclear and highly classified. Officials said that the options would probably involve the C.I.A. working with the military’s Special Operations forces.

The Bush administration has not formally presented any new proposals to Mr. Musharraf, who gave up his military role last month, or to his successor as the army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, who the White House thinks will be more sympathetic to the American position than Mr. Musharraf. Early in his career, General Kayani was an aide to Ms. Bhutto while she was prime minister and later led the Pakistani intelligence service.

But at the White House and the Pentagon, officials see an opportunity in the changing power structure for the Americans to advocate for the expanded authority in Pakistan, a nuclear-armed country. “After years of focusing on Afghanistan, we think the extremists now see a chance for the big prize — creating chaos in Pakistan itself,” one senior official said.

The new options for expanded covert operations include loosening restrictions on the C.I.A. to strike selected targets in Pakistan, in some cases using intelligence provided by Pakistani sources, officials said. Most counterterrorism operations in Pakistan have been conducted by the C.I.A.; in Afghanistan, where military operations are under way, including some with NATO forces, the military can take the lead.

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There is nothing quite like announcing covert operations of the front page of the NY Times. I am sure al Qaeda and the Taliban appreciate the heads up. The fact is that we have been conducting operation in Pakistan for some time including some Hellfire missile shots from Predators on top al Qaeda targets. What we need is better intelligence and the best way to get that is to get Pakistan more involved in counterinsurgency operations to protect the people from the brutality and excesses of the Taliban.

If they did that intelligence would improve dramatically. The story suggest that what we may be doing is helping Pakistan to act on its own intelligence. That could be a tricky situation since, the Pakistan forces seem to be regularly walking into traps. It could be that the US feels like it needs to take some action before President Obama blunders into a quagmire in Pakistan.

Update: AP reports that the Times story got the typical reaction from Pakistan--stay out. Pakistan cannot admit that it needs or will permit the US to operate in its territory. The leak to the Times may have been for the purpose of stopping such cooperation.

Scrappleface looks at the NY Times "overt" operations approach to Pakistan.