Trump could not win a two way race with either Cruz or Rubio

Stuart Rothenberger:
Trump Is More Vulnerable Than You Think

Fox’s February 15-17 national survey found Trump at 36 percent on the ballot in the GOP’s national race and almost with a 2-1 lead over Ted Cruz, who was in second place. But when respondents were asked for a second choice, Marco Rubio and Cruz showed strong second-choice appeal. Trump did not.

That should not be surprising, given the controversy that Trump generates and his personal style.

It’s possible to win a primary with one-third of the vote, but it’s difficult to win a two-way or three-way race getting one in three voters. And that is a problem for Trump. His ceiling may prevent him from being the second choice of many Republicans.
Most candidates who win multiple early contests have demonstrated broad appeal. In contrast, Trump remains a deeply polarizing candidate whose message obviously touches a certain kind of voter – one who is angry, wants a political revolution and is looking for a political strongman to mount a campaign against perceived enemies. That describes many, but not necessarily most, Republican voters.

The South Carolina exit poll found Trump doing very well among those voters who want a candidate who “tells it like it is” and well among those who want a candidate who “can bring needed change.” But he does very poorly among those respondents who want a candidate who “shares my values” and runs a weak second to Rubio among those who want a candidate who “can win in November.”
He is among the weakest candidates still in the race.   He would lose to Cruz or Rubio in a landslide in a head to head race.  Cruz and Rubio would both beat Hillary Clinton and "Trump would not in a head to head race.


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