The Saudi response to Obama's incoherent Middle East policy
Amy Myers Jaffe:
...The Saudis have shown some skills in quickly putting a coalition together to deal with the Iranian threat in Yemen. The US has shown some support for the Sunni coalition against teh Iranian backed rebels in Yemen while at the same time helping Iran and Iraq Shia fight the Sunni ISIL monsters in Iraq and Syria. The Obama administration appears to be reacting to events in an ad hoc manner with no overall strategy on any front. Its pursuit of a deal with Iran on nukes is looking like a disaster if there is an agreement, alienating allies and pushing them to get their own nukes.
... The battle lines are existential, and the kingdom is not likely to relent either militarily or on oil unless peace negotiations are substantive. In opting to raise the stakes through proxy wars, intimidation, and veiled terror attacks, Russia and Iran will have to assess the seriousness of a Saudi strategic coalition with Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt – and so will the United States. Moreover, Israel might find the chaos of a widening Sunni-Shia war as an opportunity for a sudden and rapid attempt to slow down the Iranian nuclear program by pin point bombing a key facility, rendering the chaos factor even greater.
In all this, the United States has lacked a coherent public articulation of its goals, choosing perhaps purposely, perhaps haphazardly, to hide behind tactical actions that have confused its allies in the Mideast. It is pinning all on the prospects of a historic deal with Iran, but this perhaps is unwise since even signing a deal might not be followed with Iranian compliance to it. If Iran thought a deal and peace was imminent, its actions and statements vis a vis Yemen would be different. With so much at stake, guarding all future US moves on the chess board might not be the most effective approach for the world’s superpower. Members of the US Congress are correct in weighing in. More debate about options and the level of US engagement is needed.
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