Popular vote still very close to what it was in 2010

Michael Barone:

My Examiner colleague Conn Carroll notes that Gallup’s polling over the last six months shows Barack Obama with an approval rating over 50% in only 11 states, with 169 electoral votes (Conn has 173, but I think he’s including Maine where Obama’s job approval is right at but not above 50%). They include just three of the ten largest states, California, New York and Illinois. I find these results highly congruent with the popular vote for the House in November 2010, the subject of my July 21 article in american.com. The popular vote for the House, I argued, has become a good proxy for party and presidential standing since the mid-1990s.

What’s interesting here is that the list of states where Democrats carried the popular vote for the House in 2010 looks very much like the list of states where Obama’s Gallup job approval has been over 50% this year.

...
The bottom line is that Democrats are looking at another shellacking in 2012 if things do not change.

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