Why the Perry is 'scary' theme will not work for Obama

Phillip Klein:

As he looks toward his reelection campaign with terrible poll numbers and a weak economy, President Obama may be stuck with the only strategy for an unpopular incumbent – make his opponent look worse. The predominate media narrative suggests that Texas Gov. Rick Perry would fit perfectly into this strategy because he’s made a number of statements that would be seen as too extreme and jarring to a national electorate. But modern presidential history suggests playing the “crazy card” won’t save Obama.

Incumbents in modern elections have repeatedly tried to make their challengers seem unfit for office. It worked for Presidents Lyndon B. Johnson and Richard Nixon against Barry Goldwater and George McGovern, but in both those cases the incumbents had stronger approval ratings than Obama. Even President Bush in 2004, while beatable, had more things going for him – higher approval ratings, a stronger economy, and the fact that we were at war with the memory of Sept. 11 still fresh.

Yet when the American people are itching to throw a party out of office, portraying the challenger as too extreme is generally a losing strategy, because the challenger has to meet the lower threshold of merely seeming reasonable. John McCain, while not president, represented an unpopular incumbent party in 2008 and the effort to portray Obama as being too radical and inexperienced failed, because Obama came across as measured, reasonable, and knowledgeable whenever the public saw him – despite past statements and ties to the likes of Bill Ayers. In 1992, the electorate ultimately shrugged off attacks on Bill Clinton’s honesty, draft dodging, and inexperience because of the state of the economy.

The 1980 race is worth closer examination because it may have the most parallels to 2012. With his ratings in the tank, President Carter attempted to raise fears about Ronald Reagan....

The attacks on Reagan were actually effective in keeping the race competitive until the very end – and that’s when the two candidates debated, and Reagan came off as reasonable, informed and likeable, which was a contrast with the way he was being portrayed. Everybody who follows politics knows about Reagan’s famous “there you go again” retort to Carter during the debate, but few remember what Reagan was responding to. As it turns out, it was a similar line of attack that we're now seeing against Perry.

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So far the media has been pushing the attacks and hit jobs against Perry and they have gained no traction. Many have hurt the credibility of those on the attack since the facts do not support their contentions. Perry has been subject to this kind of attack in the past and it has never been effective against him.