The Perry-Romney race for GOP nomination

Doyle McManus:

Until a few weeks ago, the race for the Republican presidential nomination seemed wide open. There was a presumptive front-runner, Mitt Romney, but he held first place mostly because he was a familiar face; his support among Republican voters appeared broad but not deep.

Many conservatives at the party's core weren't happy with Romney, and a line of would-be champions has auditioned for their support, including former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann. But none of them succeeded in knocking Romney off his perch.

Until now. Only two weeks after entering the race, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has abruptly leapt to the top of nationwide polls.

Perry's candidacy could be a flash in the pan, of course; voters have fallen in love with fresh faces before, only to reconsider as their flaws became apparent.

But Perry's surge is impressive, and there are reasons to believe he could win the nomination.

First, the polls. Last week the Gallup Poll showed Perry leading the field with support from 29% of Republican voters, with Romney at 17% and Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 13%. (Other surveys came up with similar results.) Perry's 29% was a stronger showing than Romney had enjoyed in most polls all year.

Though Perry is running strongest among conservatives, who make up a big majority of the GOP electorate, he has attracted a wider range of Republicans as well: high income and low income, college educated and blue collar, Northern and Southern. Some of Perry's support came from former Bachmann voters, but much of it came from voters who once preferred Romney — an ominous finding for the former front-runner, who still has a slight edge among moderates in the party.

Up until now there has been a hole on the right-hand side of the Republican field, and Perry appears to fit right into it.

He's a fervent fiscal and social conservative — unlike Romney, who started his political career as a relative moderate, especially on social issues, and has labored to establish right-wing credentials.

His rawboned Texas rhetoric, railing against Washington's "interference" in the affairs of small-town America, may frighten voters in the center, but it's right in tune with the "tea party."

He's a governor who can boast of his state's record of job creation — unlike Romney, Bachmann or anyone else in the race. (Yes, Texas got help from federal spending and the rising price of oil, and many of those jobs don't pay very well, but jobs are jobs.)

And he's a savvy, bare-knuckled campaigner who has won six contested statewide elections. Texas Democrats have long warned outsiders that they underestimate Perry at their peril.

"Running against Perry is like running against God," one of his former opponents, John Sharp, told Texas Monthly. "Everything breaks his way. Either he's the luckiest guy in the world or the Lord is taking care of him."

...

I have heard others say Perry is lucky and he maybe, but I never noticed. But he will be running against a president who by his own admission is unlucky. Napoleon is said to have preferred lucky officers in his army. I have always thought that smart people are usually the ones others call lucky.