Overstating New Hampshire results

Robert Novak:

During four final days of campaigning after the Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire's Republican primary was one-on-one between Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Because the winner would become the party's most likely nominee, McCain's decisive victory puts him in a commanding position after being counted out for much of the last year.

McCain won a majority of registered Republican voters here as well as New Hampshire independents who voted in the GOP primary (as he did in 2000 when he swamped George W. Bush). Romney's attacks on McCain's liberal immigration policies were popular with Republican voters, but did not resonate with McCain's independent base.

Diminished by losing in Iowa, Romney entered the final weekend in New Hampshire some five percentage points behind. His strategists hoped the immigration issue would erase that lead. In fact, accusing McCain of advocating amnesty for illegal aliens had no more impact in New Hampshire than it had in Iowa.

Romney's loss here was devastating. He planned to boost his modest national ratings with wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, where he led in spending, organization and polls.

At the beginning of December, Romney enjoyed twice as much New Hampshire support as McCain. The senator's local supporters attribute his comeback to the endorsement here of independent Democratic Sen. Joseph Lieberman. But what propelled McCain's victory was Romney's loss in Iowa to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. The onetime Baptist preacher relied on Iowa evangelicals, an asset lacking in New Hampshire.

The next two weeks are filled with promise for McCain and peril for Romney. Michigan, where Romney grew up (the son of Gov. George Romney), is the next primary, on Jan. 15. But McCain is popular in Michigan, where he defeated Bush in 2000. Another loss for Romney probably ends his candidacy.

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I don't think anyone will be out of the race before Super Tuesday unless they take themselves out on their own. Romney would certainly have a more difficult race if he does not win in Michigan, but so would McCain and Romney has assets McCain does not--money. You could also see the Giuliani strategy at work last night as the New Hampshire results were being broadcast he was running a very effective ad for his candidacy. Despite all the earned media that McCain was getting, Rudy was getting his message out to voters in the upcoming primaries and people were paying attention.

It is also important to note that no one in any primary has gotten a majority of the votes. Ho candidate so far has had a lead commanding enough to deserve tohave the election handed to them.

Last summer I ran a couple of posts on the time of the Texas 2008 primary. I was surprise to see that I got several hundred hits on those posts last night. That tells me there is a lot of interest in that race which will be decided well after Super Tuesday. There is a good chance that Texas voters will be the decider's in this contest in early March.