Romney leads in Florida polling

Rasmussen Reports:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney earning 33% of the vote while Arizona Senator John McCain attracts 27%.The poll was conducted Saturday afternoon before Florida Governor Charlie Crist announced his endorsement of McCain and the race is fluid enough that both men have a realistic chance of winning on Tuesday. Rasmussen Markets data showed that expectations for a McCain victory rose following the Crist announcement.

Romney leads 42% to 22% among conservative voters while McCain leads 43% to 25% among moderates.

Among voters who consider the economy the most important issue, Romney has a very narrow edge over McCain, 37% to 33%. Among those who name either the War in Iraq or National Security issues as most important, the candidates are tied at 31%. Immigration is seen as the top issue by just 12% of Florida’s Likely Republican Primary Voters, but they overwhelmingly favor Romney over McCain by a 63% to 7% margin. Huckabee picks up 16% of those who consider immigration the top priority.

Earlier this week, just before the Florida debate, Romney led by four percentage points. A poll conducted last Sunday found Romney leading by five.

As Florida voters seek to decide between the two frontrunners, support for other candidates is fading. Rudy Giuliani is a distant third at 18%, Mike Huckabee 12%, some other candidate, 5%, and Ron Paul 2%.

Three percent (3%) of Florida’s Likely Voters have yet to make up their mind. Another 21% say they might still change their mind. That figure includes 8% who say there’s a good chance they could change their mind before voting.

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Giuliani voters are apparently the least firm in their commitment. That might help McCain. This could be offset by early voting which Giluliani has pushed. I think that McCain and Giuliani appeal to the same group of voters. It is interesting that McCain is still considered the front runner even though he is yet to get much more than a third of the votes in any contest and Florida does not look like an exception. Romney's strength in Florida is somewhat surprising and it may reflect on Thompson's dropping out and Huckabee's lack of funds to compete for conservative voters. His candidacy looks like it might become home to the stop McCain movement which is more passionate than the elect Romney movement.