Texas primary looking more important

Houston Chronicle:

Last year, the Texas Legislature decided against moving up the state's March 4 presidential primary to join the 20-state megacontest on Feb. 5. That choice to skip Super Tuesday could end up giving Texas new importance — by accident, not by design — if the Republican presidential race remains unsettled after the early February free-for-all.

By chance, Texas and Ohio are the next big states with primaries scheduled after Feb. 5 and would instantly become delegate-rich prizes coveted by every surviving White House hopeful.

"I think Texas could be significant" in the nominating process, said former Texas GOP Chairman Fred Meyer. "You've got a very big split now. There's a good chance that it will still be open" when Texas votes.

The front-loaded 2008 primary calendar was widely expected to produce presumptive nominees in each party by Feb. 5, when more than 40 percent of national convention delegates will have been chosen.

But with many voters still undecided and no clear front-runner in the Republican pack, Texas' March 4 primary could propel the state to a decisive role in the race.

"There could be a potential situation where nobody has a majority of the (delegate) votes coming into Texas," said Tom Pauken, another former Texas Republican Party chairman, "so Texas could be important. I'm not sure there is a front-runner anymore."

The Lone Star State hasn't played an important role in either party's nomination battles since 1976, when Texans awarded all 100 delegates to insurgent Republican Ronald Reagan in his closely fought campaign against incumbent President Gerald Ford.

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"I can definitely see the growing logic of a split decision in those first three or four presidential primaries," said Austin-based Republican consultant Reggie Bashur.

None of the candidates have deep grass-roots operations in Texas.

Giuliani can count on the backing of Gov. Rick Perry and Comptroller Susan Combs, while former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee would have the use of Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson's organization.

GOP veterans say endorsements and TV advertising could be crucial to winning in a sprawling state with more than a dozen media markets.

"Texas is an expensive state to do business in, so money will be very important," said Meyer.

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Ron Paul was not listed as a factor and I don't think he will be even if his campaign is still alive by the time Texas votes. I think Giuliani and Thompson would have the best chance in Texas if they are still in the running at that time. Romney and McCain would have a shot, but only if Giuliani or Thompson have been eliminated. The story does not mention Huckabee either and he would need not only momentum by money to compete here.

I have been saying for months that Texas could be the decider in the Republican race. Much will depend on what kind of momentum is built in the early states. Since both Iowa and New Hampshire are out of touch with the national mood, there is reason to hope that the race will still be alive in early March.

Obama filed for the Texas Primary today.