McCain leads Obama, Hillary

Andrew Kohut:

Nearly lost in the blizzard of recent poll reports were the findings of a Gallup survey that the current Republican frontrunner, John McCain, might well give each of the two Democratic frontrunners a run for their money.

When Gallup asked 1,598 likely voters whom they’d back if the presidential election were held today, respondents chose Senator McCain over Barack Obama by a 50 percent to 45 percent margin, and also preferred the Arizona senator to Hillary Clinton by a modest 50 percent to 47 percent margin.

By contrast, the same survey went on to show both Senators Clinton and Obama easily besting Mike Huckabee in a general election. Senator Obama was favored over Mr. Huckabee by 10 percentage points and Senator Clinton by 6 percentage points.

It would be easy to dismiss Senator McCain’s strong showing against the leading Democrats as unreliable early poll snapshots taken when voters are not focused on the general election. After all, consider the many advantages that Democrats have over the Republicans. First the public is hankering for political change — only 27 percent are satisfied with the state of the nation and President Bush’s approval ratings have been in the low 30’s for almost a year now.

Second, trends in political and social values favor the Democrats. Support for policy positions like strengthening the social safety net are on the increase, and public concern about income inequality has risen. The proportion of the public supporting traditional social values has edged downward since 1994. And compared to 2004, current surveys find fewer voters saying that social issues like abortion and gay marriage will be important considerations when they cast a ballot in November.

The Democrats also enjoy a greater partisan advantage than they have for sometime. Half of the public, or 51 percent, either identifies as a Democrat or says they lean to the Democratic Party, compared with 36 percent who align with Republicans. Six years ago, the country was equally divided along partisan lines.

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Satisfaction and change are misleading indicators. Voters like myself are dissatisfied with the Democrat Congress and their attempt to lose the war. We would like to see a change in the leadership of Congress. The so called partisan advantage is also misleading because the generic ballot has gotten it wrong in every election in recent memory. If Democrats did not have to run against somebody they could win a lot of races, but when they have an opponent who can point out the problems with liberalism, they are in trouble. This chart indicates that Rudy Giuliani is closer to all voters than any other candidate. Actually all the Republican candidates are closer to voters than either Obama or Hillary, which suggest that many calling themselves Democrat are not liberals.