McCain has the advantage next week

Robert Novak:

Florida's primary was the one former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney badly needed going into next week's 21-state Mega Tuesday. Instead, his loss by a slim margin to Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) sends McCain into the Feb.5 showdown with a leg up on the Republican presidential nomination.

McCain has a natural advantage in next Tuesday's virtual national primary, especially in high-population California, New York and New Jersey. The winner-take-all method (by district or statewide) used by Republicans, in contrast to the Democrats' proportional representation, makes McCain a commanding favorite for the nomination.

To block McCain on Mega Tuesday, Romney needed to win in Florida. His well-financed campaign outspent everybody there. He was closely followed in the dollar derby by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who finished a poor third in Florida.

That effectively ends Giuliani's hopes for the nomination by the former front-runner in national Republican polls and dramatized his dramatic decline over the last two months. On Dec. 4, Giuliani led McCain in Florida by more than 20 percentage points. Giuliani is expected to endorse McCain.

Exit polls show that McCain lost the conservative vote to Romney by a big margin. But he was supported by war veterans and the serving military, important in Florida Republican primaries.

South Florida's large Republican Hispanic vote delivered for McCain, signifying another case where Romney's hard line on immigration backfired. The state's three Cuban-American congressional members appeared with McCain in Miami's "Little Havana."

The Cuban-American vote was pinned down with the endorsement by Sen. Mel Martinez, the national Republican party's former chairman. More lethal than a mere endorsement was the word spread by Martinez that he considers Romney a demagogue because of his tough stand against the immigration bill co-sponsored by McCain and Martinez.

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It looks like the more liberal Republicans are ascendant this year. That is unfortunate, but should not be fatal. They are still not going to get their immigration agenda approved in Congress and they know it. The fact is that their immigration agenda is not that different from President Bush.

The most important issue in the November election to me is winning the war. If I have to vote for McCain to do that, I will hold my nose and vote for him, but I will probably not give him any money. When it comes to his election he has done a good job of taking my money out of politics. While I am a conservative and I do not like McCain's position on many issues my number one priority is winning the war. McCain needs to know that he is not getting a mandate for his liberal agenda in other areas. His sole mandate is to win the war and cut domestic spending.