Sadr City operation successful so far

NY Times:

Iraqi forces rolled unopposed through the huge Shiite enclave of Sadr City on Tuesday, a dramatic turnaround from the bitter fighting that has plagued the Baghdad neighborhood for two months, and a qualified success for Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki.

As it did in the southern city of Basra last month, the Iraqi government advanced its goal of establishing sovereignty and curtailing the powers of the militias.

This was a hopeful accomplishment, but one that came with caveats: In both cities, the militias eventually melted away in the face of Iraqi troops backed by American firepower. Thus nobody can say just where the militias might re-emerge or when Iraqi and American forces might need to fight them again.

By late Tuesday, Iraqi troops had pushed deep into the district and set up positions around hospitals and police stations, which the Iraqi government was seeking to bring under its control.

The main military question now is whether Iraqi soldiers can solidify their hold over Sadr City in the coming days. And the main political one is whether the Maliki government will cement its gains by carrying out its long-promised, multimillion dollar program of economic assistance and job creation to win over a still wary population and erode the militias’ base of support.

...

Had it come to an urban battle in the densely populated Shiite enclave the Iraqi government, backed by American force, would probably have prevailed. But Iraqi troops would have suffered casualties. Shiite civilians would have been caught in the cross-fire and further alienated from the government. And eventually the Shiite militias, who had already suffered considerable losses, would have been further depleted.

Certainly, a military offensive would not have been a simple operation. The militias had been significantly weakened over the previous two months of fighting. Col. John Hort, the commander of the Third Brigade Combat Team, Fourth Infantry Division, estimated that some 700 militia fighters had been killed by air and ground fire since fighting erupted in late March.

“It is pretty safe to say that we have killed the equivalent of a U.S. battalion,” he said in a recent interview.

Some Mahdi Army leaders put the death toll slightly higher. When the truce was first announced, they threatened to refuse Mr. Sadr’s order to stand down. “What about the martyrs?” a Mahdi battalion leader recently told a reporter. “A thousand martyrs, what did they die for?”

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I agree with this analysis. The Mahdi army has taken significant casualties as well as the Iranian special groups. There attempt to stop the barrier on Quds street was a strategic mistake for a militia. What they proved is that they can not fight and hold real estate that the government are the US wants. They should have been wise enough to figure that out from previous battles. They probably loss many of their most dedicated fighters in a losing battle.

What the Iraqi army will now do is cordon and search operations looking for weapons caches. They have gotten pretty good at this with their US training. They have already been doing it in Basra. Finding the mortar tubes and rockets should take the Mahdi's PR blast away from them.

Sadr is looking like a beaten "leader" hiding in a foreign country right now.

The Belmont Club notes, "It's getting harder and harder to maintain the fiction that the Surge has succeeded only because Moqtada al-Sadr has magnanimously allowed it to flourish...." Another one of the Democrat myths is exploded in Sadr City.

Bill Roggio has more on the move into Sadr City.