Al Qaeda's losing streak

Washington Post:

Less than a year after his agency warned of new threats from a resurgent al-Qaeda, CIA Director Michael V. Hayden now portrays the terrorist movement as essentially defeated in Iraq and Saudi Arabia and on the defensive throughout much of the rest of the world, including in its presumed haven along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

In a strikingly upbeat assessment, the CIA chief cited major gains against al-Qaeda's allies in the Middle East and an increasingly successful campaign to destabilize the group's core leadership.

While cautioning that al-Qaeda remains a serious threat, Hayden said Osama bin Laden is losing the battle for hearts and minds in the Islamic world and has largely forfeited his ability to exploit the Iraq war to recruit adherents. Two years ago, a CIA study concluded that the U.S.-led war had become a propaganda and marketing bonanza for al-Qaeda, generating cash donations and legions of volunteers.

All that has changed, Hayden said in an interview with The Washington Post this week that coincided with the start of his third year at the helm of the CIA.

"On balance, we are doing pretty well," he said, ticking down a list of accomplishments: "Near strategic defeat of al-Qaeda in Iraq. Near strategic defeat for al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia. Significant setbacks for al-Qaeda globally -- and here I'm going to use the word 'ideologically' -- as a lot of the Islamic world pushes back on their form of Islam," he said.

The sense of shifting tides in the terrorism fight is shared by a number of terrorism experts, though some caution that it is too early to tell whether the gains are permanent. Some credit Hayden and other U.S. intelligence leaders for going on the offensive against al-Qaeda in the area along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, where the tempo of Predator strikes has dramatically increased from previous years. But analysts say the United States has caught some breaks in the past year, benefiting from improved conditions in Iraq, as well as strategic blunders by al-Qaeda that have cut into its support base.

"One of the lessons we can draw from the past two years is that al-Qaeda is its own worst enemy," said Robert Grenier, a former top CIA counterterrorism official who is now managing director of Kroll, a risk consulting firm. "Where they have succeeded initially, they very quickly discredit themselves."

Others warned that al-Qaeda remains capable of catastrophic attacks and may be even more determined to stage a major strike to prove its relevance. "Al-Qaeda's obituary has been written far too often in the past few years for anyone to declare victory," said Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at Georgetown University. "I agree that there has been progress. But we're indisputably up against a very resilient and implacable enemy."

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As someone who follows the news on al Qaeda closely, I don't recall ever seeing an obituary. I don't know what Hoffman is talking about. There is no doubt they still have the will, and possibly the resources for a catastrophic attack. They have fewer resources now than they did when they attacked New York and Washington. Their more recent attacks have been back pack bombs in the UK and car bombs in Iraq and Afghanistan. These attacks are not as spectacular as their earlier ones.

One of the problems is they are losing their assets at the same time they are losing their command and control ability. Earlier in the war some saw the diffusion of control as a negative for our side, but it has not worked out that well for al Qaeda.

It is important to remember that al Qaeda is mostly a PR operation for a few few religious bigots. Some of their PR is in the form of recorded messages and some of it is its people exploding around non combatants. It has hoped to create chaos which it would then exploit to seize power. It has been largely thwarted in that objective in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as Somalia. Its attacks have also alienated most of the Muslim world. As much as they might want to blame the US for the violence in Iraq, it became clear that al Qaeda was responsible for killing Muslims lining up for work or just going shopping.