If ifs and buts were candy and nuts

Lynn Woolley says the polls may call Texas senate race close but other factors say no.

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So is Cornyn in trouble? Or are the ubiquitous headlines just wishful thinking? There are two major indicators. The first one has to do with the emerging Hispanic voting bloc that we hear so much about -- especially here in Texas. Will Sen. Cornyn suffer for his outspoken support of the border fence -- and will Hispanics flock to the polls to support Noriega?

We’ll have to wait until November for the answer to the second part of that question. The first part has already been answered. Despite his border fence vote, Sen. Cornyn has picked up major endorsements from Rio Grande Valley officials. And some of those officials are Democrats!

The irony is that the majority of these border officials are more concerned about their shopping malls being able to draw Mexican customers than they are with sealing up the border to stop illegal immigration. They are openly opposed to the border fence to the point of filing lawsuits against the federal government to stop it. And yet, that’s not enough to prevent them from enthusiastically supporting the sitting senator.

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The point here is that Sen. Cornyn is not a one-issue legislator. He’s helped border officials obtain more time for Mexicans with border crossing visas to visit the U.S. – from 72 hours to a full month. That type of thing helps Cornyn remain popular even in heavily Hispanic areas.

The other big indicator is “the mother’s milk of politics” -- money. Recent disclosures have Cornyn with $8.7 million in the bank -- a formidable war chest in a state with huge media markets like Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin and San Antonio. Noriega reported just $330,000 as of March 31st. To put that in perspective, Noriega might be able to afford a couple of TV flights in one of those markets. Cornyn has enough cash to blanket the state.

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I am a little surprised the race is polling this close, because Cornyn has been an outstanding senator. In fact he is probably in the top for the whole senate. Noriega wants to lose a war we are winning. That alone is enough for me and others to vote against him. He may be popular in Austin, but I don't see him winning a statewide race.

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