CIA looks at Al Qaeda succession study

AP/San Antonio Express-News:

The U.S. is making "a big and continual push" to capture or kill al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden, but his demise won't end the organization's menace, CIA Director Gen. Michael Hayden said Tuesday in an Associated Press interview.

The CIA is equally interested in those jockeying to replace bin Laden in what he predicted will be a "succession crisis."

"It will be really interesting to see how that plays out. The organization is a lot more networked than it is ruthlessly hierarchical," Hayden said of the group behind the 9/11 attacks on the U.S. "How do you pick the next overall leader?"

A number of Egyptians are now part of al-Qaida's top echelon and may struggle for power among themselves. Bin Laden's current No. 2, Ayman al-Zawahiri, is an Egyptian.

Despite al-Qaida's resilience, taking out bin Laden would be a psychological blow to the organization, Hayden said.

"If there ever was a sense of invulnerability I think killing or capturing him would shatter it once and for all," he said.

...

I think al Qaeda's loss in Iraq has been the biggest blow to the organization since the fall of the Taliban. It has really lost credibility throughout the Muslim world, not just from the loss, but also from the way it fought the war against non combatants. With the recent targeted Hellfire on its operatives in Pakistan, they all should feel vulnerable.