Militia ceasfire in Baghdad, offensive against al Qaeda in Mosul

AP/Fox News:

Shiite militants agreed on a ceasefire in Baghdad's embattled neighborhood of Sadr City, an aide to a high level cleric said Saturday, holding out hope that weeks of clashes in the capital could be at an end.

In the northern city of Mosul, an Iraqi army commander announced the start of a long anticipated offensive against Al Qaeda in Iraq's last urban stronghold.

Sheik Salah al-Obeidi, an aide to anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, said the cease-fire will go into effect Sunday.

The cease-fire may not necessarily end seven-week-old clashes in Sadr City, the stronghold of al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. The U.S. military has blamed clashes on groups who broke away from the main organization. It remained unclear who will abide by the cease-fire deal.

It is not believed that the bulk of the 60,000-string Mahdi Army has participated in the clashes, but mostly just splinter groups that have refused to honor a general cease-fire ordered by al-Sadr last August. Al-Sadr has directed his supporters to only fight when attacked.

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"A 10-point agreement has been reached between members from the United Iraqi Alliance and Sadrist movement in Baghdad and we are informed that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is committed to it," al-Obeidi said in the southern city of Najaf.

He said "the agreement stipulates that Mahdi Army will stop fighting in Sadr City and will stop displaying arms in public. In return, the government will stop random raids against al-Sadr followers and open all closed roads that lead to Sadr City."

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"This document does not call for disbanding al-Mahdi Army or laying down their arms," al-Obeidi said, rejecting a previous call by al-Maliki.

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This sounds more like a hudna than a real agreement. The militia was getting beat and needed some breathing room to regroup. It is not clear whether this agreement would effect the barrier on Qods street where most of the fighting has taken place. This barrier was needed to stop the militia attacks on the Green Zone which have virtually ceased since its construction began.

The offensive in Mosul appears to be a continuation of current operations aimed at clearing out the remnants of al Qaeda. The Iraqis continue to be in the lead in these operations and the US is supporting them. Logistic support is still the key weakness of the Iraqi army. The US also has better fire support if the Iraqi army comes up against a fortified position.

The BBC has more on Operation Lion's Roar in Mosul. "Around 10,000 Sunni tribesmen from Mosul who are loyal to the government are taking part in the operation with an armoured brigade of Iraqi troops."

Bill Roggio has more on the terms of the cease fire. It looks like one that is very favorable to the Iraqi government.