The face of the McCain-Obama race

David Yepsen:

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By nominating Obama and McCain, each party is offering voters the most electable candidate in their field. Yes, each has a little trouble with the base of his party, McCain with the social conservatives, Obama with blue-collar folks.

Each seeks a change in Washington. McCain is the maverick, Obama the newcomer. Both are willing to tell Americans things we don't want to hear, a refreshing change from the pandering politics of recent presidencies.

Each is also difficult for the other to attack. Anyone who wants to "take on" either man in a negative way runs a risk: You could easily impugn a war hero's patriotism or get caught trying to play on racial fears.

The two also offer Americans other distinct choices. There's the difference on the Iraq war. There's a big age difference. McCain's a conservative on social issues such as abortion. Obama is one of the nation's most liberal senators.

Obama's race is the biggest wild card in the contest. Can Americans elect an African-American? There is evidence from the caucus and primary results that some whites have trouble voting for a black. He's also had trouble with women Democrats. He offsets some of those deficits by attracting many new young voters and African-Americans precisely because he is black.

A second big unknown is national security. If U.S. fortunes plummet in Iraq or there is another big terrorist attack, it could rally Americans around McCain as the old soldier needed in tough times - or push them to Obama as the candidate who promises to end U.S. involvement in Iraq. The betting here is it will help McCain.

As in recent elections, Iowa will be a toss-up state. The realclearpolitics.com average of all polls taken recently in Iowa shows that as the November campaign opens, Obama has 48 percent, McCain 42 percent with10 percent undecided.

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Any place that elects Tom Harkin is not going to be an easy place for a conservative Republican, but McCain does have his fans in Iowa despite his lack of campaigning there. The fact that Obama is not over 50 percent there is surprising given the advantages he supposedly has and given McCain's blunt opposition to ethanol.

Liberals are already using the race excuse for Obama. They are misleading themselves and insulting blue collar voters who oppose Obama's liberalism and his arrogant condescension toward their patriotism. Democrats are always hypersensitive about anyone who questions their patriotism, but they find ways to question the patriotism of people who disagree with them on national security, and they do not go unnoticed. They are also insulting voters by calling them racist for opposing Obama.

While Democrats think the war in Iraq is their issue, they ignore the fact that they were dead wrong about it and the new counterinsurgency strategy for all of 2007. At some point it will be harder for voters to ignore just how wrong they were and how much worse off the country would be if we had adopted their policy last year.