The back story on Syria's decision to negotiate

Amir Taheri:

EVERYONE had been dancing around the idea of Israel-Syria peace talks for at least a year. Why are they happening now? Will they get anywhere?

Negotiations are under way now because all those involved are under various kinds of pressure.

Syria's economy is in the doldrums. The threat of an international tribunal hangs over its leaders because of their alleged involvement in former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri's murder. A new peace process could divert international attention and persuade the major powers that making peace is more important than bringing Hariri's killers to justice.

Plus, at least part of Syria's leadership also worries about the regime's increasing reliance on the Islamic Republic in Tehran - which has led to Syria's unprecedented isolation in the Arab world.

Even in Lebanon, the cost for Syria is high. For decades, Syria was the main foreign influence in Lebanon. Now Iran has taken its place, and Syria must rely on two Iranian-sponsored and -financed outfits, the Shiite Hezbollah and the Maronite bloc led by ex-Gen. Michel Aoun.

The extent of Iranian influence in Lebanon became clear during last week's Lebanese peace talks in Doha, Qatar: The Hezbollah delegation leader, Muhammad Hassan Raad, had to leave the conference four times to "check things out" with Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Motakki.

Worse still, Iran has built up a network of influence in Syria itself by investing in businesses that employ thousands and distribute favors among the ruling elite. Iranian influence in the Syrian military and security services must concern some Damascus leaders.

Damascus was the capital of Yazid, the Umayyid caliph who ordered the slaying of Hussein bin Ali, the third Imam of Shiism. Conquering the city has been a dream of Hussein's descendants since 680.

Ayatollah Ali Husseini Khamenei, Iran's "supreme guide," claims descent from Hussein. As Iran's president in 1988, he paid a state visit to Damascus with unusual pomp - boasting that he was going to Damascus to show that "Yazid is dead while Hussein is alive and conquering."

Religious and symbolic considerations aside, Iran wants to control Syria and Lebanon as advance posts in what it sees as its inevitable war against Israel. Its efforts in Syria include creating the largest Shiite theological seminary outside Iran, plus a massive campaign of "Shiificiation" via 14 Iranian "cultural centers" recently opened in Syrian provinces.

"We are facing an existential threat," says a senior Syrian personality. "Tehran wants to transform Syria into an Islamic republic in all but name."

Syria's leaders can't counter the Iranian threat without finding friends elsewhere, notably among moderate Arab states, the Europeans and the United States.

Israel, for its part, regards some measure of normalization with Syria as an urgent priority. A less hostile Syria would make it more difficult for Iran to threaten Israel with asymmetric warfare via Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.

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Flipping Syria would be a huge setback for Iran. Whether its rulers are wise enough to see how they are becoming another proxy for the religious bigots in Tehran is another question.