Al Qaeda's demise could be soon

Telegraph:

The uprising by Sunni tribes against al-Qa'eda in Iraq, combined with protests in northern African countries against suicide bombings and dissent from clerics and former terrorists have put the group's leadership on the defensive as never before, said the official.

"If al-Qa'eda maintains its current state of play of attacking civilians and Muslims, and continuing to not change its philosophy, it will start to fizzle," the senior official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said.

Speaking to the Daily Telegraph, he said the end of the movement as a global threat was "visible" and "foreseeable", in contrast to previous assumptions that it last for generations.

Acknowledging that the threat of a major al-Qa'eda attack remains significant not just in Iraq but in Europe and elsewhere, his remarks reflected a quiet confidence within the George W. Bush administration that one of its major goals will be achieved before too long.

Major declarations of triumph have been precluded by the mockery that followed the president's "Mission Accomplished" statement in Iraq in 2003, while US generals have been divided about how far to boast about successes in Iraq, where this week Iraqi forces launched an offensive against al-Qa'eda in Mosul, the group's the last urban bastion.

But White House officials are beginning to express confidence that al-Qa'eda will be defeated and offer some justification for Mr Bush's policies even after he has left office.

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There is much more. I think the case can be made that Al Qaeda has suffered a significant strategic defeat in Iraq and its forces in Afghanistan are much weaker than in previous years. It still as a few sanctuaries in Pakistan that need to be dealt with. I think that will happen next year regardless of who is president.