War supporters pushed McCain victory

CNN:

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McCain won Tuesday thanks in part to independents, late deciders and voters who put the war in Iraq at the top of their agenda, exit polls suggest.

"He is the one who ardently supports President Bush's troop buildup in Iraq," said CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider.

"Most Republicans support President Bush's Iraq policy, including New Hampshire Republicans, and that was the top issue for McCain voters."

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He attracted 38 percent of the independent vote, compared to 16 percent of independents who went to Romney.

Independent voters make up about 40 percent of New Hampshire's electorate. Registered party members can vote only in their own party's primaries, but independents can vote in either.

McCain also benefited from people who made up their minds late in the game.

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Exit polls found 64 percent of Tuesday's Republican voters still support the conflict -- and Romney, whose criticism of President Bush's management of the war has been muted, outpolled McCain in that category.

But among the 34 percent who said they disapproved of the war, McCain had a wide advantage over the GOP field -- even over Texas Rep. Ron Paul, the sole advocate of a U.S. withdrawal in the Republican field.

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This latter results proves a point I have made about the approve disapprove polling on the war. The polls tend conflate those who want a more aggressive prosecution of the war with those who want to lose the war. The media tends to assume that disapproval means the voters who say that will vote Democrat. McCain just proved them wrong. the media has been overstating the anti war sentiment for a year or more, but McCain's win especially among those who disapprove makes clear the sentiment in favor of victory. A better polling question would be whether the voter wants to win the war or lose it.