The uncertainty of the Iowa voters

David Yepsen:

There is much knitting of the brow in the political community that's camped out in Iowa just now. And it's not all due to New Year's Day hangovers.

The latest Iowa Poll published by this newspaper shows Barack Obama with a handsome 7-point lead over Hillary Clinton among likely Democratic caucusgoers. However, other polls show Clinton only a point or two ahead.

The difference is due, in part, to the fact that 40 percent of the likely Democratic caucusgoers in the Iowa Poll say they are independent voters. Five percent say they're Republicans.

That's just too many independents and Republicans for some to visualize at a Democratic caucus. It's causing much harrumphing among the Democratic camps deflated by the numbers.

And who knows. Maybe they are correct. Maybe people are telling pollsters the acceptable thing, that, "Oh, yes, I'll be there," when, in fact, they'll be parked in front of the tube, watching football.

But maybe it isn't wrong. Maybe we're looking at a big Obama turnout in Iowa. Maybe we're looking at the beginning of an Obama sweep to the nomination and the presidency.

From the very beginning, Obamamania has generated huge crowds across the state. They are often full of faces not seen at political rallies.

For example, on Monday night at a New Year's Eve party in Ames, hundreds packed the Great Hall at Iowa State University and waited for more than an hour to hear Obama deliver his well-polished stump speech.

In that speech he does something interesting. He always asks for a show of hands of those who've never been to a caucus. (More than half the hands go up.) He always asks for a show of hands of those who are undecided. (Maybe a third of the hands are in the air.)

Now, I assume here that someone who would devote their New Year's Eve to attending a political speech might just be a little predisposed to go out a few nights later to caucus for the candidate who delivered it. Just a guess.

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There is more.

One of the reason I have been reluctant to jump on every Iowa poll is that there is no consistency in them and there are too many different front runners. The only one that counts will be tomorrow night and it will depend on which six percent of Iowa voters show up and which two percent gives a candidate a plurality for which "momentum" will be alleged.