The Super Tuesday splits for GOP, & Texas primary importance

Michael Duffy and Rani Molla:

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As polls stand now - admittedly a useless indicator - the candidates are poised to split the spoils on February 5, even if we assume everyone contends for the trove of GOP delegates at play in California, which is not a winner take all state. Let's imagine for a minute that Rudy Giuliani concentrates his efforts on four winner-take-all-states in his backyard: New York, New Jersey and Connecticut and Delaware. If he won those states and (for discussion's sake) one quarter of California's congressional districts, he would take home about 343 delegates.

Meanwhile, it's conceivable that John McCain would direct his efforts largely elsewhere, at Arizona, Colorado, North Dakota, West Virginia — as well as all of California. If he prevailed in those four states and won half of California's CDs, he could take home as many as 242 delegates.

Then, there are already signs that Mike Huckabee has his eye on a third set of states on Feb 5: the heartland arc of Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama, Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee. If Huckabee won all of those (and they are almost all winner-take-all states), he would take home a surprisingly large 308 delegates. (This assumes Fred Thompson retires from the field between now and then, and Huckabee does poorly in California.)

And Mitt Romney has a few cards to play on February 5, too. He ought to do well in Utah, Montana and Massachusetts. If he cornered one fourth of California's CDs as well he could add nearly 150 delegates to his tally. (Romney is ahead of the other Republicans in total delegates as things stand now; at the same time, Massachusetts is a proportional primary, meaning he'd likely not get all the delegates.)

Of course, things will surely turn out differently than the rough sketch above. And if this primary season has already taught us anything, it's that there's no way to predict how millions of voters will behave. "A big split probably won't happen," said a top delegate hunter for one of the GOP candidates. "Momentum has always kicked in before. But the possibility is there this time like it has never been there before."

Momentum has been no ones friend so far. Drudge is reporting that a new Rasmussen poll has Romney with the lead in Florida getting 25 percent support. That probably still puts him within the margin of error with the other leaders in the state. If the split does go down as suggested by this report, Texas's 140 delegates in a winner take all primary loom large in early March.