The reasons for Rudy's decline in polls
...Success in politics usually comes to those who are creating buzz. Rudy forfeited that with his strategy and it will be hard to get it back, but no impossible.The crucial point is this: Giuliani didn’t fall in the national polls because Republican voters decided he doesn’t have the stuff to be president. He didn’t see his crowds thin because rank-and-file Republicans finally turned thumbs down on his more moderate social views (on abortion, gay rights or gun control). And he didn’t fall off the media’s national radar because Republicans remembered his friendship with Bernie Kerik or his messy personal life when he was still serving as mayor.
Giuliani’s star dimmed during the first half of January, not because he committed a gaffe but because he made himself irrelevant. When he becomes relevant at the end of January, both voters and the national media will once again turn to Rudy, and that’s when he’ll have his shot.
This isn’t to say that his strategy hasn’t already affected his prospects. If you don’t play, you can’t win, and you can’t build up any momentum along the way, as former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney already have done. On the other hand, momentum apparently is overrated this year, since neither Huckabee’s victory in the caucuses nor McCain’s in New Hampshire catapulted them to a win in the next contest.
Possibly more important, Giuliani’s Florida/Feb. 5 strategy requires a lot of money, since it is based on a strong showing in a large number of states, many of them heavily populated, stretching from coast to coast.
You can win Iowa, as Huckabee proved, without a lot of cash. And you can overcome a large financial disadvantage in New Hampshire, as McCain demonstrated. Both of those states require and reward retail politics. But Giuliani’s strategy requires a lot of money, and he’s rapidly running out of it, according to most reports.
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Yes, even though the Republican nomination is still up for grabs and Giuliani’s strategy has so far paid off, he remains only a long shot for the Republican nomination. But given the weirdness that is the 2008 presidential race, that’s not half bad.
Rothenberg claims that the various results in the early races demonstrate the Republican Party is fractured. I don't think so. I think it is just undecided still on a group of candidates that are all better than any Democrat running. While many conservatives may not like or trust John McCain, they will support him over whomever the Democrats nominate. Their lack of enthusiasm would hopefully be made up by the independents and moderates he attracts. On the fundamental issue of winning the war, the Republicans are united. (Ron Paul is not a serious contender for the nomination.)
If Giuliani can get his buzz back, he too can get the support he needs. In 1860 the Democrats were fractured which handed the race to Republican Abraham Lincoln. Their disagreement over a candidate was fundamental and irresolvable. The modern GOP is a long way from that, and by the way, Lincoln was not chosen until the third ballot at the convention.
I think he has a chance of getting his buzz back if he begins to remember that 9/11 was six and a half years ago. For better or worse, time has passed, and we need to do other things than just keeping ourselves safe from terrorists.
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