Paul polls poorly at Iowa caucuses

Houston Chronicle:

A fifth-place showing in Thursday's Iowa caucuses was far short of what Republican Ron Paul and his supporters were counting on, but for the well-funded Texan, this was just the first stop.

Heavy turnout for the caucuses was expected to help Paul, whose maverick campaign was largely dependent on first-time, younger voters.

But the Lake Jackson Republican's lackluster showing — trailing Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, John McCain and Fred Thompson — indicated that his message for a downsized government, an end to the Iraq war and a return to the gold standard did not resonate with as many voters in Iowa as he hoped.

"He brings to the party an unusual group of voters," said Rice University political scientist Bob Stein. "There are lots of different ways that people can participate in the process, and Ron Paul is an example of that."

Even so, fueled by prodigious fundraising — $20 million in the last quarter — Paul will be able to continue his campaign past the defeat in Iowa and beyond the point where other, less well-funded long-shot candidates would be forced out.

With Iowa now behind them, Paul and the other candidates still in the race are off to New Hampshire, for the first in the nation presidential primary on Jan. 8.

"I would not be surprised if Ron Paul fares rather well in New Hampshire, by which I mean as high as third," said David Schaefer, a political scientist at College of the Holy Cross in Worcester, Mass.

Paul's New Hampshire coalition includes old-fashioned New England individualists, techies from Boston who moved to New Hampshire and others drawn by Paul's anti-war stance.

Even so, Schaefer said he doubted Paul's campaign would carry beyond New Hampshire. Instead, he predicted Paul would eventually be the Libertarian Party nominee.

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The Paul campaign finally ran into a poll they could not skew the way they have internet polls. It also demonstrates that raising money does not necessarily raise votes. There is probably a lesson there for self funded candidates like Mike Bloomberg and to some extent Mitt Romney. Money may be important, but too many well financed candidates have also lost. If Paul does run as a Libertarian, that would be a net plus for Republicans. We are not going to get the Paul vote anyway, and Obama might.